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1、FlashEconomicsIstheECBstaffedby"left-wingKeynesians"?11January2018-41TheECBispursuingsignificantmonetarystimulusatatimewhentheeurozone’sunemploymentrateisapproachingthestructuralunemploymentrateandwhengrowthismarkedlyhigherthanpotentialgrowth.OnecouldthereforebelievethattheEC
2、Bisstaffedby"left-wingKeynesians"whohavesubscribedtothe"overheatingtheory":maintainingstimulationofdemandatfullemploymentmakesitpossibletoobtainfasterwageincreases,areductioninpoverty,animprovementinthequalityofjobs,andadditionalpublicinvestmentfinancedatverylowinterestrates.
3、Butisittruethatthisstrategyispositive,evenifoneadoptsa"left-wingKeynesian"viewpoint?Pursuinganexpansionarymonetarypolicywhengrowthhasreturnedandwhenunemploymenthasfallenmarkedlycangiverisetoarealestatebubble,whichisbadforlow-incomehouseholdsandyoungpeople;andcanmakehigh-incom
4、e,ratheroldpeoplericherthankstorisingassetprices,allofwhichisnormallynotdesirable.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsDo
5、estheECBinrealityhave"left-wingKeynesian"objectives?ItisstrikingthattheECBmaintainssignificantmonetarystimulus(Charts1AandB)atatimewhentheeurozone’sunemploymentrateisfallingrapidlyandisapproachingthestructuralunemploymentrate(Chart2),euro-zonegrowthismarkedlyhigherthanpotenti
6、algrowth(Chart3A),growthprospectsaresurging(Chart3B),andcorporateinvestmenthaspickedup(Chart3C).Chart1AChart1BEurozone:Monetarybase(inEURbn)Eurozone:NominalGDP,euroreporateandinterestrateon10-yeargovernmentbonds3,2005503,000500NominalGDP(Y/Yas%)Inabsoluteterms(LHS)2,8004508Eu
7、roreporate8Month-on-monthchange(RHS)Eurozoneexcl.Greece:10-yeargovt.interestrate(as%)2,6004002,400350662,200300442,0002501,800200221,6001501,400100001,20050-2-21,0000800-50-4-4600-100Sources:Datastream,ECB,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis400-150-6-602030405060708091011121314
8、151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart2Chart3AEurozone:Unem
