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1、FlashEconomicsHowtocreatearisk-freeeuro-zoneasset?06December2017-1407Thereisstillexcessglobaldemandforgovernmentbondsperceivedasrisk-freeintheeurozone.Tocorrectthissituationandtheresultingabnormallylowlevelofinterestratesontheserisk-freebondsintheeurozone,and
2、alsotohelprestorecapitalmobilitybetweentheeuro-zonecountries,itwouldbehelpfuliftheeurozonehadalarge-scalerisk-freeasset(currently,therearesmallrisk-freeeuro-zonebonds:EIB,ESM).Sohowcouldarisk-freeeuro-zoneassetbecreated?Mutualisationofexistingpublicdebtisopp
3、osedbythecountriesthatpaylowerinterestratesbecauseofthetransferpaymentstotheothercountriesthatwouldresult;Withoutmutualisingpublicdebt,asyntheticbondbasedonallnationalgovernmentbondscouldbebuilt(alargeETFforeuro-zonegovernmentbonds).Astheeurozoneasawholeisfi
4、scallysolvent,thissyntheticbondwouldbedeemedrisk-free.Butthiswouldgiverisetoamoralhazard:acountrycouldsharplyincreaseitspublicdebt,whichwouldbesoldwithinthissyntheticbondasrisk-free;Theonlysolutionthereforeseemstobetobuildasyntheticeuro-zonebondfromallthecou
5、ntries’governmentbondsand,inaddition,toinstilfiscaldiscipline:eitherbindinglimitstocountries’fiscaldeficits,orlimitstothesizeoftheshareofeachcountry’spublicdebtthatiseligibleforinclusioninthesyntheticbond.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com
6、@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsAlargerisk-freeeuro-zoneassetwouldber
7、ealprogressGlobally,thereisstillexcessdemandforrisk-freeassets.Intheeurozone,thisresultsinexcessdemandforrisk-freegovernmentbonds,which,oncequantitativeeasingisended,risksgivingrisetoasplitbetweenreputedlyrisk-freebonds(Germany,France,theNetherlands,Belgium,A
8、ustria,Finland)andtherest(Chart1).Chart1Interestrateon10-yeargovernmentbondsGermany+France+Netherlands+Belgium+Austria+FinlandSpain+Italy+Portugal8866442200Sources:Datastream,Natixis-2-20
