那提西银行-美国-宏观经济-美国公司将如何使用额外的利润

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1、FlashEconomicsHowwillUScompaniesuseadditionalprofits?10November2017-1325IfUScompanies’netearningsrisethankstoareductioninthetaxrateonearnings,whichisverylikely,itisinterestingtodeterminehowthisincreaseinearnings(cashflows)willbeused:Increaseincorporateinvestment?Webelievethisisunlikelyatt

2、hisstageofthecycle,giventhealreadyveryhighlevelofinvestmentandself-financingrates,andthelowlevelofthecapacityutilisationrate;Distributiontoshareholdersthroughanincreaseindividendsandsharebuybacks?Weseethisaslikely,giveninvestors’strongcallscurrentlytoreturncashtotheshareholders,thepersist

3、entshortfallinreturnonequityincomparisonwiththepast,andtheneedtovalidatethehighequityvaluation.ThereductionintaxesonearningsintheUnitedStatesisthereforeunlikelytoleadtoasharpincreaseininvestmentorgrowth,butitwillboosttheUSstockmarket.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@P

4、atrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsIncreaseincorporateearningsintheUnitedStatesifthetaxrateonearningsiscu

5、tintheUnitedStatesItseemsverylikelythatthetaxrateoncorporateearningsintheUnitedStateswillbecut(from35%to20%or25%forthetheoreticalrates),andthereforethatUScompanies’after-taxearningswillincrease(Chart1).Chart1UnitedStates:Profitsaftertaxandinterest,beforeandafterdividends(as%ofnominalGDP)Pr

6、ofitsaftertax,interestanddividendsProfitsaftertaxandinterest,beforedividends1818171716161515141413131212111110109Sources:Datastream,BEA,Natixis9889800020406081012141618Ifthetaxationofcorporateearningsisreducedbyone-third(Chart2),UScompanies’earningsbeforedividendpaymentswillincreaseby5%.Ch

7、art2UnitedStates:Taxesoncorporateprofits(as%ofnominalGDP)4.04.03.53.53.03.02.52.52.02.01.51.5Sources:Datastream,BEA,Natixis1.01.09800020406081012141618ButwhatwillUScompaniesdowiththisincreaseinearnings?2FlashEconomicsItisunlikelythatUScompanieswillusetheincrea