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1、FlashEconomicsCrisesarealwaystriggeredbyUSmonetarypolicy18January2018-77Sincethelate1990s,financialcrisesandtheassociatedrecessionshavesystematicallybeentriggeredbyUSmonetarypolicy.Inthesecondhalfofthe1990s,theFederalReservelettheUSequitybubbleinflatewithoutreactin

2、g;theburstingofthisbubblein2000triggeredaglobalrecession;From2002to2007,theFederalReserveallowedapropertybubbletoinflateintheUnitedStateswithoutreactingandallowedthedevelopmentofmortgageloansecuritisationwithabnormallylowriskpremia;theburstingofthepropertybubblefro

3、m2007triggeredtheglobalsubprimecrisis;In2013,theFederalReserve’sannouncementthatitwouldendquantitativeeasingin2014triggeredcapitaloutflowsfromemergingcountriesandasteepdeteriorationinthesecountries’economies.TheFederalReservehasthereforetriggeredglobalrecessionseit

4、herthroughlaxityinthefaceofbubblesanddebtorbyconductingamonetarypolicywithoutlookingatitseffectsonothercountries.WhatrisksofsuchanaturearenowfoundinUSmonetarypolicy?ProbablytheriskoftheFederalReservecausingthebondbubblethatitallowedtoswellburstinthefuture.PatrickArt

5、usTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsOurtheory:Formorethan20years,globalcrisesandrecessionshavestemmedfromUSmonetarypolic

6、yUSmonetarypolicy:-Hasbeenlax:itallowedtheequitybubbletoinflateinthesecondhalfofthe1990s;thepropertybubble(andassociatedcredit)toinflatefrom2002to2007;andthebondbubbletoinflatesince2010;-HasmadechangestoUSmonetarypolicywithoutconsideringtheconsequencesfortherestofth

7、eworld.Thiswasthecaseintherecentperiodwiththeannouncementoftheendofquantitativeeasing.WethinkthatbothcharacteristicsofUSmonetarypolicyarebehindtheglobalcrisesandrecessionsofthepast20years.USmonetarypolicyandglobalrecessions1-Thesecondhalfofthe1990sInthesecondhalfoft

8、he1990s,USmonetarypolicyremainedquiteaccommodating(Chart1A)andallowedanequitybubbletoinflateintheUnitedStates(Charts1BandC).Chart1AChart1B