那提西银行-美国-宏观经济-为何扩张期持续的更久

《那提西银行-美国-宏观经济-为何扩张期持续的更久》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、FlashEconomicsWhyareexpansionperiodslastinglonger?04December2017-1389WearenowseeingintheUnitedStates(andperhapslaterintheeurozone)thatexpansionperiodsarelastinglongerthanwasexpected.Whymightexpansionperiodsnowlastlonger?Possibleexplanationsinclude:Thereturntoworkofpeoplewhohadwithdrawnfromthe

2、labourmarketduringthecrisis(thisappliestotheUnitedStatesbutnottheeurozone);Thelowwagegrowthdespitefullemployment,andthereforelowinflationandinterestrates;Thefactthatmonetarypoliciesarestructurallymoreexpansionarythaninthepast;Thegreatercautionamongborrowers(andthereforelowerdebtratios)andin

3、vestors(andthereforeaslowerincreaseinassetprices);Possibly,apotentialupturninproductivitygains,whichhavebeensuppressedbythecrisis;Possiblyalso,andonlyinthecountrieswherethelabourmarkethasbeenmademoreflexible,afallinthestructuralunemploymentrate.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@nati

4、xis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsLongexpansionperiodintheUnitedStatesTheexpansionperiodintheUnited

5、Statesgotunderwayin2010andisstillongoing(Chart1).Chart1UnitedStates:RealGDPgrowth(Y/Yas%)66442200-2-2-4-4Sources:Datastream,BEA,Natixis-6-60203040506070809101112131415161718Intheeurozone,theexpansionbeganin2014andgrowthisnowaccelerating(Chart2).Chart2Eurozone:RealGDPgrowth(Y/Yas%)442200-2-2-4-

6、4Sources:Datastream,Eurostat,Natixis-6-60203040506070809101112131415161718WhatmechanismsmayexplainwhythegrowthperiodislastingsolongintheUnitedStates,andwhichcouldalsomeanthatthegrowthintheeurozoneissettoendure?2FlashEconomicsThemechanismsthatmayexplainwhyexpansionperiodsarenowlongerthaninthepa

7、st1-ReturntoworkofpeoplewhohadwithdrawnfromthelabourmarketduetothecrisisThisargumentappliestotheUnitedStatesbutnottheeurozone.ThecrisiscausedtheparticipationratetoplummetintheUnitedStates.Itisnowpickingup(Chart3),whichisprolongingtheris