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1、FlashEconomicsCouldIndiaovertakeChina?05February2018-112India’spopulationisnowsimilartothatofChina,andisexpectedtoovertakeitin2022.WhatwouldbeneededforIndia’sGDPtoovertakeChina’sinthefuture?Thelabourforce-thepopulationthatisinemployment-mustgrowfasterinIndiathaninChina,w
2、hichraisesthequestionoftheeducationlevelofthepopulationandruralexodus;LabourproductivitymustgrowfasterinIndiathaninChina,whichraisesthequestionofthelevelofinvestment,theskilllevelofthepopulation,capitalmodernisationandpublicinfrastructure;RecurringcrisesmustnothaltIndia
3、’sgrowth,whichraisesthequestionofIndia’ssavingsshortfallandexternaldeficit.Altogether,IndiahasademographicadvantageoverChinabuthasmanyhandicaps:thepopulation’sskilllevel,weakcapitalmodernisation,insufficientpublicinfrastructureandlowsavings.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500p
4、atrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsAnupdateonpopulation,employment,GDPandproductivityinIndiaandChinaChart1AshowsIndia’sandChina’spopulations,Char
5、t1Btheirworking-agepopulationsandpopulationforecasts;Charts2A,B,CandDshowtheirlevelsofGDPindollarsandinpurchasingpowerparitydollars.Chart1AChart1BPopulation(thousandsofpeople)Populationaged20to65(thousandsofpeople)1,700,000India1,700,000India1,000,000China1,000,000China1,
6、600,0001,600,000900,000900,0001,500,0001,500,0001,400,0001,400,000800,000800,0001,300,0001,300,000700,000700,0001,200,0001,200,000600,000600,0001,100,0001,100,000Sources:UN,NatixisSources:UN,Natixis1,000,0001,000,000500,000500,000980104071013161922252831343740980104071013
7、161922252831343740Chart2AChart2BNominalGDP(USDbn)LevelofGDPinPPPdollars(USDbn)12,00012,00025,00025,000IndiaIndiaChina10,00010,000China20,00020,0008,0008,00015,00015,0006,0006,00010,00010,0004,0004,0005,0005,0002,0002,000Sources:Datastream,IMF,NatixisSources:Datastream,IMF
8、,Natixis000098990001020304050607080910111213141516179899000102030405060708091011121314151617Char
