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1、FlashEconomicsOptimismfor2018:Remember200717January2018-70AllcommentsontheeconomicsituationinOECDcountriesin2018arenowveryoptimistic.Butweshouldrememberthatin2007,oneyearbeforethecrisis,wealsosaw,likenow:Majoroptimismamongcompaniesandhouseholds;Rapidgrowthinalldemandi
2、temsandinglobaltrade;Synchronisedgrowthinallregions;Risingassetprices(realestate,equities),withamonetarypolicythatdidnotreact;IntheUnitedStates,anincreaseincorporatedebtleverageandsharebuybacks;Anabnormalsqueezingofriskpremia.Thesesimilaritiesandthepresenceofidentic
3、alfinancialimbalancesshouldgivegroundsforconcernaboutthecurrentsituation.Sincethe2008crisishouseholdhave,admittedly,deleveragedinOECDcountries,butgovernmentshaveincreasedtheirdebtevenmore.Sothecurrentoptimismdoesnotsignifythatanothercrisiswillnotoccur.PatrickArtusTel.(3
4、31)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsWidespreadoptimismprevailsin2018asin2007WewilllookattheOECDasawhole,definedforthesakeofsimplific
5、ationasUnitedStates+UnitedKingdom+eurozone+Japan.In2018,asin2007(i.e.oneyearbeforetheLehmanbankruptcy),weareseeing:-Optimismongrowthprospectsamongcompanies(Chart1);-Optimismamonghouseholds(Chart2);-Quiterobustgrowth(Chart3).Chart1Chart2OECD*:CompositePMI(index)OECD*:Hou
6、seholdconfidenceindex(normal=100)6060102(*)UnitedStates,United102Kingdom,eurozoneandJapan10110155551001005050999945(*)UnitedStates,United45Kingdom,eurozoneandJapan989840409797Sources:Datastream,ISM,Markit,NatixisSources:Datastream,OECD,Natixis353596960203040506070809101
7、1121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart3OECD*:RealGDP(Y/Yas%)442200(*)UnitedStates,United-2Kingdom,eurozoneandJapan-2-4-4Sources:Datastream,BEA,ONS,CAO,Eurostat,Natixis-6-60203040506070809101112131415161718The2007experienceshowsthatmajoroptimismdoesnotsig
8、nifythatarecessionandacrisisarenotimminent.Wewillalsoshowthat,inadditiontotheoptimism,manyfactorsaresimilartod
