那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-欧洲央行的真正目标是什么？

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1、FlashEconomicsWhatistheECB’srealobjective?05December2017-1443TheECB’smonetarypolicyissurprisinglyexpansionarygiventhecyclicalpositionoftheeurozone,andwillremainsoeventhoughthecentralbankwillexitquantitativeeasingin2018.Thisraisesaquestion:whatistheECB’srealobjective?Isititsofficialobje

2、ctive,namelytoliftinflation?Isthisevenpossibleiflabourcostsnolongerrespondtothefallinunemploymentintheeurozone?Isitawillingnesstoupholdthefiscalsolvencyofalltheeuro-zonecountries(isfiscaldominanceatplay)?ItispossiblethattheECBhasthisobjectiveofavertinganothercrisisintheeurozone;Isitbe

3、causeitshighlyexpansionarymonetarypolicyisirreversibleandtheECBwantstoavoidthelossesforinvestorsthatwouldresultfromanincreaseininterestratesandcreditspreads?Ifthisisthecase,thisstanceisdangerous:thelongermonetarypolicynormalisationisdelayed,themoredifficultitwillbecomeandthemorelikelyan

4、eventualfinancialcrisiswillbecome.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORPORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthi

5、sreport..FlashEconomicsTheECB’ssurprisinglyexpansionarymonetarypolicyTheeurozone’scyclicalpositionisimprovingrapidly:growthishigherthanpotentialgrowth(Chart1A)andunemploymentisdecliningrapidly(Chart1B).Chart1AChart1BEurozone:RealGDPandpotentialgrowthEurozone:Unemploymentrate(as%)(Y/Yas%

6、)131366RealGDPPotentialgrowth*12124411112210100099-2-2(*)Percapitaproductivity-4smoothedoverthepast5years-488Sources:Datastream,+labourforce(Y/Yas%)Eurostat,NatixisSources:Datastream,Eurostat,Natixis-6-67702030405060708091011121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Why,eventhough

7、theECBwillendquantitativeeasingin2018,istheeurozone’smonetarypolicygoingtoremainhighlyexpansionary?Verylowinterestrates(Chart2A),likelycontinuationoflong-termrepos,levelofliquidityremaininghighlyabundant(Chart2B).Chart2BChart2AEurozone:MonetarybaseandoutstandingreposEurozone:No