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1、Couldthedollarloseitsreservecurrencystatus?FlashEconomics16January2018-66Thedollar’sreservecurrencystatusisstillintact:theweightofthedollarinforeignexchangereservesremainshighandhasevenincreased,theUSexternalandfiscaldeficitsarefinancedwithoutanydifficulty,therestoftheworldstructurallyremainsab
2、uyerofUSequities.Butthequestionisneverthelesswhetherthedollarcouldloseitsreservecurrencystatusinthefuture,whichwouldleadtoatotallydifferentfunctioningoftheinternationalmonetarysystem.Thereasonsareasfollows:TheUnitedStates'structuralproblemsaremassive:quiteweaklabourforceskills,weakeningtechnol
3、ogicalprogress,declineinAmericans’employability;Theshortfallofsavingsischronic,andleadstoachronicexternaldeficit,whicheventuallycouldtriggeranexternaldebtcrisisfortheUnitedStates;ThesizeoftheUnitedStatesintheglobaleconomyis,moreover,smallcomparedwiththeweightofthedollarintheinternationalmonet
4、arysystem;IntheUnitedStates,financialandrealestateassetpricebubblesandtheassociatedexcessivedebtappearrepeatedly,whichtriggerfinancialcrises,andthismayhappenagainnow.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedSt
5、ates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThedollar’sreservecurrencystatusremainsintactWearenowseeingthat:-Thedollar’sweightinforeignexchangereserveshasremainedhigh,andhasevenrisensince2014(Table1);-TheUSexternaldeficit(Chart1)andfiscaldeficit(Chart2)arefinancedwithoutanyd
6、ifficulty(withoutrisinginterestrates,Chart3,andwithoutasteepdepreciationofthedollar,Chart4);-Therestoftheworldstructurallyremainsabuyerofbondsindollars(Chart5).Chart1Chart2UnitedStates:Current-accountbalanceUnitedStates:Fiscaldeficit(as%ofnominalGDP)(as%ofnominalGDP)0000-1-1-2-2-2-2-3-3-4-4-4-4
7、-6-6-5-5-8-8-6-6Sources:Datastream,BEA,NatixisSources:Datastream,Natixis-7-7-10-1002030405060708091011121314151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Chart3Chart4UnitedStates:Interestrateon10-yearTreasuriesUnitedStates:Nominaltrad
