德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：经济平稳运行-20170921-deutsche bank-special report russiain pictures,steady as she goes

《德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：经济平稳运行-20170921-deutsche bank-special report russiain pictures,steady as she goes》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateRussia21September2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainpictures:Steadyasshegoes(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comCarlosGalindoRussianeconomybeatmarketexpectationstogrowby2.5%YoYinQ2,ResearchAnalystthehighes

2、tgrowthin14-quartersascomparedto0.5%YoYinthe(+44)207547-6269previousquarter.Themonthlydatasuggeststhatthegrowthwaslikelycarlos.galindo@db.comdrivenbyindustrialproduction,construction,transportationactivityandretailtrade.HouseholdconsumptionislikelytohavecontinuedincreasingTwisha

3、RoyinQ2,onthebackofhigherrealwagesandimprovingconsumerResearchAssociateconfidence,declininghouseholdsavingsrateduetolowerrealinteresttwisha.roy@db.comrates,andimprovinghouseholdcredit.AugustdatashowsRussiaisdoingfairlywell,butitistooearlytocallthat2Qperformancecanextendinto3Q.C

4、onstructionoutputwasup6.1%YoYRussia’ssovereigncreditratinginAugustrelativeto5.3%YoYinJune.TransportationoutputalsohassummarybeenonpositivesidewithAugustreadingbeing7.8%YoY.Retailsalesandrealwagesbeingrepresentativeofdemandhaveshownconsiderable160Moody'sS&PFitchimprovementinpast2

5、months.Theaverageretailsalesforthefirsttwo150monthsofQ3iscloseto1.6%YoYascomparedto1%YoYgrowthinQ2.140Similarly,realwageshavebeenshowingpositivetrendwith2monthsaveragebeingclosetopreviousquarter’saverage.Arelativelyslower130growthinindustrialoutputandrealdisposableincomeinJulyan

6、dAugustBelowIG120canbeadragonQ3growth.110InflationsurprisedonthedownsideinAugust;likelytocontinuetodecelerate.Weexpectthedisinflationarytrendtocontinuewithannual100Jun-05Jun-09Jun-13Jun-17inflationfallingfurtherto3.1%YoYbyyear-endonthebackofdecliningfoodpricesandbaseeffects.See

7、EMEASnap–Russia:AugustinflationSource:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankopensdoorformoreaggressiveeasingbyCBRformoredetails.TheCBRdecidedtocutthekeypolicyrateby50bpstotakerateto8.50%RealGDPgrowthoutlook20HouseholdconsumptionGovernmentContributiontoinSeptember.HowevertheCBRremained

8、cautiouslyhawkishintheirtone.NPISHGFCFrealGDPCh