德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-新兴市场月度报告：高期望

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange18January2018RatesCreditEmergingMarketsMonthlyHighExpectationsDrausioGiacomelliSameerGoelHongtaoJiangJulianaLeeElinaRibakova(+1)212250-7355(+65)64236973(+1)212250-2524+85222038312+44(2

2、0)7547-1340SpecialReportsTheCuriousCaseofEMFXCarryIndiain2025:Bigger,Better,StrongerLatAmCorporates:CommoditiesStrengthNotOverYetDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.NotetoU.S.investors:USregulatorshavenotapprovedmostforeignlistedstockindexfuturesandoptionsforUSDis

3、tributedon:19/01/201800:27:32GMTinvestors.Eligibleinvestorsmaybeabletogetexposurethroughover-the-counterproducts.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa18January2018EMMonthly:HighExpectationsKeyEconomic

4、ForecastsRealGDP(%)Consumerprices(%pavg)Currentaccount(%GDP)Fiscalbalance(%GDP)2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019FGlobal3.83.83.8↑2.93.3↑3.00.40.20.0-3.1-2.8-2.8US2.32.62.22.12.12.2-2.9-3.2-3.5-3.6-2.8-3.2Japan1.81.2↑0.80.30.40.8

5、4.14.6↑4.5-3.7-3.2↓-2.8↓Euroland2.32.31.71.51.41.53.32.72.1-1.1-0.9-1.0Germany2.32.31.81.71.61.77.26.57.40.90.80.5France1.82.01.61.21.31.4-0.8-0.6-0.6-2.9-2.7-2.9Italy1.61.41.01.31.01.52.92.82.6-2.1-1.9-1.8Spain3.12.92.32.01.51.61.81.71.6-3.1-2.2-1.6Neth

6、erlands3.02.52.41.31.61.910.210.210.11.10.50.4Belgium1.82.21.72.21.61.7-1.0-0.7-1.0-1.8-1.5-1.5Austria2.82.52.32.22.01.72.22.52.8-0.9-0.7-0.5Finland2.92.62.10.81.21.6-1.00.00.5-1.2-1.0-0.8Greece1.23.02.21.10.71.1-1.0-0.50.0-1.60.01.0Portugal2.62.01.51.61

7、.21.50.20.00.0-1.4-1.2-1.2Ireland4.14.03.20.31.01.23.83.53.00.10.1-0.4OtherIndustrialCountries2.11.92.02.02.02.1-1.0-0.7-0.3-1.2-1.0-0.6UnitedKingdom1.61.01.42.72.52.3-4.5-4.0-3.5-2.5-2.1-1.4Sweden3.02.72.51.82.02.25.04.54.01.01.00.5Denmark2.12.01.91.11.

8、61.67.57.57.0-1.0-0.5-0.5Norway1.82.22.01.91.91.86.06.05.53.54.05.0Switzerland0.92.11.80.50.30.710.510.611.00.30.30.2Canada3.02.32.11.61.82.0-2.7-2.1-0.9-1.1-1.4-1.2Australia2.22.63.32.02.12.3-1.6-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.5-1.0NewZea