德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-新兴市场通胀：缓慢攀升

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDate27December2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMinflation:Creepingup(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comCarlosGalindoSubdued,butmarchingupwardsResearchAnalystLoworcontrolledinflationshouldcontinuetolendsu

2、pportto(ordelay)(+44)207547-6269tighteningthemonetarypolicystanceofEMcentralbanks.However,thiscarlos.galindo@db.comupdatesignalsthatsuchsupporthasthinnedandthedelayhasshortened.Overall,theclosingoftheglobaloutputgapin2018isexpectedtobringaboutmoreinflationtoEM.General

3、izedEMinflationWeupdateourlatentindexofunderlyingglobalEMinflation,frominflationdatain87EMcountriesandcommodityprices.WeshowhowthemeasureisusefulwhencomparedtosimpleweightedaveragesofEMinflation,bothasagaugeofcurrentpressuresanddirectionality.Compositemeasuresofinflat

4、ionandinflationexpectationsOurEMindexofinflationexpectationspickedupsteamagaininNovember,butisstillplacedhalfwayrelativetotheheightsofQ1thisyear.WhilethenowcastfilterhelpspredictwidespreadsurprisesinEMinflationeachmonth,ourcompositeheatmapsallowforaquickoverviewofcurr

5、entconditions.EMforecastpathsOurteamsaroundtheworldnowseelargelyidiosyncraticinflationdynamicsinthemonthsahead.However,thegeneralthemeisthatweseemoreinflationbyend-2018thanatpresent.ThereportcentralizesallofourviewsonEMinflationfor2018fromourglobalteamofeconomists.Ana

6、rrowingglobaloutputgappointstoageneralizedincreaseinEMWeexpectCPIinflationinmostEMcountriestogrindhigherfrominflationcurrentlevelsin2018CountryΔ(2018YE,pp)†Initialcondition*504HongKong1.92.3Russia1.32.840Brazil0.92.83Korea0.81.5Israel0.70.430Malaysia0.72.82Indonesia0.

7、73.5Chile0.62.220Peru0.51.81Hungary0.52.210Thailand0.40.6Poland0.42.20SouthAfrica0.34.50China0.32.4Philippines0.33.1-1-10Taiwan0.01.0CzechRepublic-0.22.5-2Colombia-0.53.8-20India-0.54.3Turkey-1.611.6-30-3Mexico-1.96.4010203040506070809101112131415161718Source:Deutsche

8、Bank.†Note:Δ(2018YE,pp)referstocentered3-monthaveragedifferencebetweenyear-end2017CommonEMinflationsignaland2018projections,