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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange10January2018RatesCreditChristianWietoskaStrategistEMEAFixedIncome(+44)20754-52424christian.wietoska@db.comPortfolioupdate-Turkey2018Outlookview:InourEMEAFixedIncomeoutlookpublishedinearlyDecember,wearguedthatT
2、urkishlocalbondshavethemostroomtorallyacrossallEMEAfixedincomemarkets;however,risksremainhighinlightofgeopoliticaldevelopments,FXsensitivitytoexternalshocksandtheCBTreactionfunctiontotheexpecteddeclineininflationpressure.Wealsohighlightedsteepenersasoneofourpreferredchoices;howev
3、er,wearguedthatfirstsomeFXstabilizationwasneededforthelattertoperform.Whathappened?Turkishfixedincomeendedtheyearonastrongfoot.AsaresultofadeclineingeopoliticaltensionwiththeEUandtheUSaswellasglobaltailwinds,FXstabilizedand10Ybondsralliedby30bpsincemid-Dectonow11.75%AlthoughtheDe
4、cemberinflationprintsurprisedsomewhattotheupside,pricepressureneverthelessdeclinedduetopositivebaseeffect.WenowseethetimingandvaluationasattractivetoentersteepenersintheTurkishXCCYswapcurve.Traderrecommendation:Entersteepeners,bestexpressedvia3mfwd1Y-5YXCCY(current:-167bp,target:
5、-95bp,stop:-205bp),with12bpof3mrollor3mfwd1Y-10YXCCY(current-273bp,target:-195bp,stop:-305bp)with8bpof3mroll.Rationale:Wejustifythisviewwith:Elevatedlevelsinshort-endrates,particularlyinlightoftheupcomingmorefavourableinflationdynamics;Asupportivemonetarypolicyimpulsegivenourex
6、pectationsofalessaggressivehikingcyclethancurrentlypriced;Thedeclineinbasisintheshort-endasaresultoftheFXstabilization;Attractivesteady-statereturncharacteristics–unusualforsteepenersininvertedcurves,andlastbutnotleast;Anextremelylowterm-premiumontheXCCYswapcurve–historically,
7、comparedtopeersandmostimportantly,comparedtothelocalbondcurve.Wearguethatthetradecanworkinabullish(monetarypolicyimpulse),aswellasbearish(increaseinterm-premium),environment.Risks:IncreaseingeopoliticaltensioncausingasharpFXdepreciationoranunexpectedfurtherincreaseininflation.10Y
8、bondyieldforecast:Althoughlocalbondshave
