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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange12October2017RatesCreditChristianWietoskaStrategistEMEAFixedIncome(+44)20754-52424christian.wietoska@db.comHowtopositionintoyear-endAnkitJainResearchAssociate(+91)226181-1634EM(EA)FixedI
2、ncome–whoismostexposedtocoreraterepricing?Althoughankit.jain@db.comstillwellbelowpeaks,betasin10YEMlocalbondsto10YUSTsincreasedsharplyinrecentweeksasaresultofcoreratesrepricing.However,whilebetasincreasedforEMEA,theyremainedmoreorlessstableinAsiaandevendec
3、linedacrossLatAm.BetasforEMEAarenowhigherthanforLatAm.OurDBStrategyratesteamdoesnotexpectasuddenspikeinUStreasuries.However,thehouseviewfor10Ytreasurieswith2.75%byend-17remainswellaboveforwards.ThisincreasestheriskforEMlocalbondmarketstounderperform,partic
4、ularlyforthosecountrieswithhistoricallyhighsensitivitytoUSratesand/orcurrentshort-termbetaswellbelowLTaveragebetas.Inthispublication,weprovideanupdateonsensitivityofEMcountriestoUSTsResults:CombiningLTbetas(thehighertheworse)andthecurrentbetarelativetoLTbe
5、tas(thelowertheworse)–Romania,IndiaandMalaysiawouldcurrentlybethemostresilientfixedincomemarkets,whileBrazil,Mexico,PeruandSouthKoreaarethemostexposed.ComparedtoourpublicationinAugust,therankingsforSouthAfricaandIsraelimprovedthemost,whiletheydeterioratedt
6、hemostforChile,Peru,PolandandSouthKorea.EMEAFixedIncometraderecommendations:RussianFIremainsourpreferredpositioninEMEAdespitetherallyalreadyseen.Afterbeingonthesidelinesforthelastfewmonthswealsore-enteralong-termconstructiveviewonTurkishfixedincomeonthebac
7、koftherecentunderperformance.AcrossCEE,wefavourPolandwhilewekeepourverycautiousviewonSouthAfricaaheadofthebudget(Oct),creditratingdecisions(Nov)andtheANCelectiveconference(Dec).InRussiastaylonginOFZs,thismonthbestinAug-21orMar-33.Onthelocalswapcurvekeep1YI
8、RSreceiverswhileincross-currencyswapsexpressasteepenerbiasbybeingshortin5Y5Yeithera)againstbeinglonginthebellofthecurve(3Yor2Y2YXCCY),b)againstbeinglonginbonds,givenfavourableASW-spreads,orc)outright.InTurkey
