德银-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场本地市场的价值何在-2019.7.17.pdf

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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEmergingMarketsDateEmergingEurope17July2019LatinAmericaEMSpecialPublicationWhereisthevalueinEMlocalmarkets?ChristianWietoskaOverthelastfewdays,wehavepublishedtop-downupdatesontheattractive-StrategistnessofEMlocalmarkets.Inourpublication,EMlocalmarketsvs.externals-how+44-20-7

2、54-52424muchispricedin?,wefindthatbothassetclasses–EMFXandEMFI–areatrichDavidPetitcolinlevelscomparedtowhatisimpliedbyexternaldrivers.ThisisevenmorethecaseStrategistforEMFIthanEMFX.Furthermore,inourmonthlyEMFlowreport,wepointoutthat+44-0-207547-6168overthepastfewweeks,returnsonEMlocalbondsandEMFXha

3、vebeennoticeablystrongerthanwhatareimpliedbyflowindicators.Thelatterimplyveryrichvalua-AnkitJaintionsinlocalassetsrelativetothoseimpliedbyforeignflows.ResearchAssociate+91-22-6181-1634Nowinthispublication,weprovideabottom-upanalysisofEMlocalmarketsbyMallikaSachdevaupdatingourEMFXandEMFIScorecards.W

4、ehighlightthemostattractiveFXandStrategistFixedIncomemarketsbasedonimportantunderlyingdrivers,andpointout+65-64238947changesinattractivenesssincethepreviouseditioninearlyMay.Lastbutnotleast,JundongZhangwedivedeeperintoEMlocalmarketsandpointoutwhereweagree/disagreewithMacroStrategistthescorecardresu

5、lts.+1-212-250-9363SebastianA.Brown**PleasenotethatwithintheEMFXandEMFIScorecards,aweakoverallrankingStrategistdoesnotnecessarilytranslateintoashortonlocalassets.Wepresentthefinalscore+1-212-250-8191asasimpleaverageoftherankingsofindividualcomponents.However,wesuggestDrausioGiacomellireadjustingthe

6、weightingsdependingontheexternalbackdrop(offensivevsdefen-Strategistsivevariables)andthesubjectiveimportanceofspecificvariables.Rankingscandif-+1-212-250-7355ferfromoutstandingtraderecommendations.**FindingsnTheEMFXScorecard:OurupdatedversionranksHUF,KRWandSGDasthemostattractivecurrencies.Ontheothe

7、rhand,PHP,THBandIDRarenowrankedamongtheleastattractivecurrencies.Interestingly,however,wenotethatbasedon"RealRates"and"Carry"–thetwovariableswiththebesttrackrecordsinourmostrecentEMFXScorecards–IDRwouldbera