德银-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场月报：政治活动

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCross-DisciplineDateCEEMEA22January2018ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEAMonthly(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comPolitickingKubilayOzturkChiefEconomist(+90)2123170124kubilay.ozturk@db.comSouthAfricaisturnin

2、gthepage,hopefully.WiththeANCelectionsoutofthewayandthemoremarketfriendlyRamaphosaelectedpartyPresident,DaneleeMasiapositivesurprisesonsentimentandgrowthmorelikely.ThepossibilitythatEconomistZumamaynowberecalledasStatePresident,soonerratherthanlater,

3、is(+27)11775-7267danelee.masia@db.commorepositiveformarketswhichwillwelcomepoliticalstabilityandanendto(hopefully)policyparalysis.ItappearslikelyZumawillberecalledbeforeChristianWietoskathe8FebStateoftheNationAddressbythePresident.SARBhasrevisedinfla

4、tionforecastslower,closertoourestimates,onthebackoflowerStrategistpoliticalrisksandlowerelectricitytariffhikeapprovalforEskom.We(+44)20754-52424christian.wietoska@db.comcontinuetobelievethatriskstoinflationwillpersistandthedeclineinupsiderisksdonotye

5、tjustifyratecuts.WethusexpectSARBwillkeepGautamKalani,Ph.D.ratesonholdat6.75%fortherestoftheyear.EverythingneedstogowellforSARBtoconsidercutsandmorethan25bpsweseeasunlikelyeveninStrategist(+44)20754-57066themostpositivescenario.gautam.kalani@db.comI

6、nTurkeymainrisksarepolitical.Economicactivitylookssettoremaincompetitivethroughout2018followingsomedecelerationinQ42017.CPIHimanshuPorwalshouldremainmostlyindouble-digitsthisyear.WethinktheCBTislikelyResearchAnalystdonewithtighteningandpolicyratesalr

7、eadypeaked,assumingthe(+44)20754-74234absenceofanotherexternalordomesticshockanditsensuingimpactonhimanshu.porwal@db.comthelira.Themainrisksaregeopolitical(possibilityofamilitaryinterventioninSyria)anddomesticpolitics(extensionofstateofemergencyforth

8、eCarlosGalindosixthtime).GivenTurkey’sstructuralbottlenecks,suchaslargeexternalResearchAnalystfinancingrequirements,arenewedboutofexcessiveTRYdepreciation(+44)20754-76269carlos.galindo@db.comcouldpropagateanegativefeedbackloopbetweentherealandthenomi