德银-全球-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦

《德银-全球-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange9February2018UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelli(+1)212250-7355JedEvans(+1)212250-8605SebastianBrownEconomicsFocus:InAsia,Indonesia,SriLankaandThailandarelik

2、elytokeepStrategist–LatAmpolicyratessteady,butwaitingforanysignofashiftinpolicybias.InEMEA,Q4(+1)212250-8191GDPdataandJanuaryinflationdataforCEE3andIsraelwillbeinfocusnextweek.Aftertheabove-expectationsinflationprint,attentioninChilewillfocusontheGautamKalaniBCCh’ssur

3、veyofeconomistandtraders’expectationstobereleasedonMondayStrategist–EMEAandWednesdayandtheminutesofthelastmonetarypolicymeeting.WeexpectweakannualGDPgrowthtostrengthenthecaseformonetaryaccommodationin+44(20)754-57066ColombiaandPeru.InVenezuela,sanctionrisksandpolitica

4、lradicalizationarerisingafternegotiationswiththeoppositionstalledandthegovernmentunilaterallyJulianaLeecalledforpresidentialelectionsonApril22nd.SeniorEconomistStrategyFocus:WeseethisrealignmentinUSTpremiumandequitypricesoflimited+852(2203)8312consequencefortheglobale

5、conomy.Inaddition,lookingbeyondshort-termtechnicaldislocations,EMinflowshavelittlebearingonUSequitypositions.Reducedpass-throughofwageinflationtopricespointstonochangeinFOMCstance.GuilhermeMaroneFX:ThefateofEMcurrencieshingesoncontinued,synchronousgrowthandStrategist

6、-LatAmUSDweakness.Thisrepricingofriskpremiumdoesnotchangemacro(+1)212250-8640prospects,inourview,andthustheoutlookforEMFX.TakeprofitinspotZARlongsandmovetolong-dated(9m)USDZARdigitalputs.Alsohold2mdigitalElinaRibakovaputsinUSDTRYandUSDMXN.Ontheshortsidewelikeshekel,es

7、peciallyasChiefEconomisttherecentinterventiondatashowalargepick-upinpace.Aftertighteningstops(+44)207547-1340topreservegainsonlongBRLandonourlongstandingrecommendationshortUSDCOP(giventhatoilhassomeroomtofallfurther)westayonthesidelinesfornow.Wealsocloseourrecommendat

8、iontosellUSDPENgiventheChristianWietoskaincreasingrisksofdomesticturmoilinPeruandthedeclineofcopperprices.Strategist–EMEARa