新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦.docx

《新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate17April2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,SouthKoreaislikelytoseeGDPfallto0.4%inQ1,whileStrategistexportsandIPdataworsenfortheregioninMarch.InCEEMEA,nextweekalleyes+1-212-250-7355willbeontheAprilMPCmeeti

2、ngsoftheCBRandtheCBT.InRussia,withRUBJundongZhanglookingmoreresilientrelativetooil,andtheCBR’sconfidenceintheshort-runMacroStrategistnatureofthecurrentinflationandinflation-expectationsspike,wenowexpectthe+1-212-250-9363CBRtopursuea50bpcutto5.50%nextFriday.InTurkey,recentreserve

3、dynamics,weakTRY,risingriskpremiumasmanifestedinhigherCDSspreads,andongoingSebastianA.Brownliquidityeasingallpointtodiminishedroomforfurtherratereductions.Thatsaid,ChiefEconomist+1-212-250-8191theMPC’sprevailingreactionfunctionandtheirpossibleassessmentforalowerCPIprofileaheadco

4、uldstillleadtoanothercuttothetuneof75bps.ThedataHongtaoJiangscheduleislightinLatAmnextweek.InBraziltheIPC-SreleaseshouldbeweakasStrategistfoodpricescontinuetoeasewhileweexpectexternaldatatoshowresiliencyinFDI+1-212-250-2524flows.InMexicoweexpectnon-coregoodstoseeanegativeheadlin

5、eprintforJulianaLeeinflationduringthefirsthalfofApril.NeitherArgentinanorChilehasdatareleasesChiefEconomistofnotealthoughmarketswillbefocusedonthedetailsofArgentina’sdebt+852-2203-8312renegotiation.Finally,inbothColombiaandPeruweonlyexpectfurtherguidanceKubilayOzturkonthenation-

6、widequarantinessettoexpireonApril26th.ChiefEconomist+44-20-754-55157StrategyFocus:Weseesignsthatthereliefrallyiscomingtoanend.ThegoodDavidPetitcolinnewsofflatteningepicurveshasspreadandbeenpriced,whiletheeconomicandStrategistfiscalrepercussionsoftheseshockstoEM–especiallyinLatAm

7、andCEMEEA–+44-0-207547-6168seemunderestimated.Risk-neutralratesareapproachingtheZLBforlowyieldersChristianWietoskaandalsoforhighyielderswheninrealterms.ThisconditionsfixedincomeralliestoStrategistimprovingcreditconditions.However,webelievethattheworstisstilltocomefor+44-20-754-5

8、2424emergingeconomies.EMFXcontinuestobedrivenb