新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦.docx

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDate20March2020EconomicsFocus:InAsia,BoTislikelytofollowitsEMAsianpeerstocutratenextweek,whileVietnamreportsharplyweakerQ1growthduetoCovid-19disruption.PolicymakersacrossCEEMEAarerespondingstronglytothevirusoutbreakanditseconomicimpa

2、ctbyannouncingstimuluspackages,liquiditytools,quantitativeeasing(IsraelandPoland),alongwithemergencyratecuts.WeexpecttoseefurtheractionsinthesamedirectioninthenearfuturewithCNBcuttingbyanother50bps(oratleast25bps)andfurtherliquidityeasing(andbondbuying)byNBH.UnscheduledmeetingsbyCBsandannouncemento

3、fadditionalfiscalstepsarealsolikely.Moody'slookssettodowngradeSouthAfricatobelowIG.InLatAm,Brazil’scalendarnextweekwillbedominatedbythefocusexpectationssurveyaswellasbyactivityandinflationdata.Banxicoisscheduledtomeetnextweekandweexpectareductionoftheovernightratebyatleast25bpandpossibly50bpiftheex

4、changeratestabilizesbynextThursday.InArgentina,weexpecta-1%y/yGDPgrowthprintforQ4´19andaslightriseofunemploymentfrom9.7%to10%.InColombia,weexpectBanreptomaintainthepolicyrateat4.25%,aswhileinflationremainswithinthetargetrangerisksaretiltingtotheupsidewiththerecentCOPselloff.InPeru,aftertheCBcutpoli

5、cyrateby100bponThursday,wewillbefocusedonanyadditionalgovernmentannouncementsrelatedtoCovid-19.StrategyFocus:EMisenteringthemoredifficultstageofthispandemicaslocalgovernmentshavetodealwithcontainmentmeasuresandtheireconomicimpact.Weareinasharprisk–offmodewhilecontainmentofvirusisunclear.EMfixedinco

6、meFX–hedged,asthemostdefensiveEMassetclass,hasalsosufferedfromheightenedcreditrisks,whichweighsonlongerends.WeexpectEMCBstotakefront-loadedcutsandthusfavorbullsteepenersparticularlyforhighyielders.Policywouldprioritizenormalizationofcreditmarketsandgrowth(andthenthemostgrowth–sensitiveFX)shouldbeth

7、elastshoetodrop.Inaddition,outflowaccelerationisakeyrisktowatch.nFX:EMcurrenciescontinuetoselloffasmarketscontinuetotradeonrisk-offmodedespiteaggressivepolicyactionsannouncedbyG10CBsandgovernments.InLatAm,M