德银-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦-2020.4.17.pdf

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate17April2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,SouthKoreaislikelytoseeGDPfallto0.4%inQ1,whileStrategistexportsandIPdataworsenfortheregioninMarch.InCEEMEA,nextweekalleyes+1-212-250-7355willbeon

2、theAprilMPCmeetingsoftheCBRandtheCBT.InRussia,withRUBJundongZhanglookingmoreresilientrelativetooil,andtheCBR’sconfidenceintheshort-runMacroStrategistnatureofthecurrentinflationandinflation-expectationsspike,wenowexpectthe+1-212-250-9363CBRtopursuea50bpcutto5.50%n

3、extFriday.InTurkey,recentreservedynamics,weakTRY,risingriskpremiumasmanifestedinhigherCDSspreads,andongoingSebastianA.Brownliquidityeasingallpointtodiminishedroomforfurtherratereductions.Thatsaid,ChiefEconomist+1-212-250-8191theMPC’sprevailingreactionfunctionandt

4、heirpossibleassessmentforalowerCPIprofileaheadcouldstillleadtoanothercuttothetuneof75bps.ThedataHongtaoJiangscheduleislightinLatAmnextweek.InBraziltheIPC-SreleaseshouldbeweakasStrategistfoodpricescontinuetoeasewhileweexpectexternaldatatoshowresiliencyinFDI+1-212-

5、250-2524flows.InMexicoweexpectnon-coregoodstoseeanegativeheadlineprintforJulianaLeeinflationduringthefirsthalfofApril.NeitherArgentinanorChilehasdatareleasesChiefEconomistofnotealthoughmarketswillbefocusedonthedetailsofArgentina’sdebt+852-2203-8312renegotiation.F

6、inally,inbothColombiaandPeruweonlyexpectfurtherguidanceKubilayOzturkonthenation-widequarantinessettoexpireonApril26th.ChiefEconomist+44-20-754-55157StrategyFocus:Weseesignsthatthereliefrallyiscomingtoanend.ThegoodDavidPetitcolinnewsofflatteningepicurveshasspreada

7、ndbeenpriced,whiletheeconomicandStrategistfiscalrepercussionsoftheseshockstoEM–especiallyinLatAmandCEMEEA–+44-0-207547-6168seemunderestimated.Risk-neutralratesareapproachingtheZLBforlowyieldersChristianWietoskaandalsoforhighyielderswheninrealterms.Thisconditionsf

8、ixedincomeralliestoStrategistimprovingcreditconditions.However,webelievethattheworstisstilltocomefor+44-20-754-52424emergingeconomies.nEMFXcontinuestobedrivenb