资源描述：
《新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场宏观策略与聚焦.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate27March2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,RBIdeliveredratecutsaheadofscheduledmeeting,Strategistbutthereismorefiscalandmonetarysupporttobedoneamidnationwidelock-+1-212-250-7355
2、down.Nextweek'sdata,includingPMIreleases,willrevealtheseverityofJundongZhangeconomicshockoutsideChina,amidtheCovid-19outbreak.AsthenumberofMacroStrategistconfirmedCOVID-19casesrisesinCEEMEA(withoneofthesharpestincreases+1-212-250-9363seeninTurkey),gove
3、rnmentshavebeenforcedtoimplementmorerestrictivemeasurestocontrolthespreadofthevirus.Athreeweeklock-downinSouthAfrica,SebastianA.BrownandtheextensionofthenationwidequarantineintheCzechRepublicaresomeofStrategist+1-212-250-8191themoreextremepreventivemea
4、suresannounced.Governmentsandcentralbanksacrosstheregionhavesteppedupinvariousdegreestosupporteconomies,HongtaoJiangwhichincludesgovernmentbondpurchasesbytheSARBinamajordeviationfromStrategisttheirorthodoxpolicymakingtillnow.Weexpectmonetarypolicytocon
5、tinueto+1-212-250-2524provideliquiditythroughavarietyofmeasuresincludingpolicyratecuts,bondJulianaLeepurchases,FXintervention,etcacrosstheregioninthecomingperiod.ThemajorChiefEconomistexceptiontothisbeingtheCBRwhichlookssettokeepratesonholdatleasttillt
6、he+852-2203-8312shocksubsides,andcontinuestofocusonFXsalestolimitRUBvolatility.InLatAm,KubilayOzturkupcomingdatainBrazildonotyetreflecttheimpactofthepandemic-focusonChiefEconomistcontagionandpolitics.Mexicohasalightweekintermsofdatasomostofthe+44-20-75
7、4-55157attentionwillbeonBanxico’sexpectationssurvey.Argentina’soutputduringDavidPetitcolinJanuaryshouldhavecontracted1%y/ydrivenmainlybymanufacturingproductionStrategist-abadstartingpoint.WeexpectunemploymentinChiletohaverisento7.6%in+44-0-207547-6168F
8、ebruary,IPtoriseto2%y/y,andforImacectoriseto1.5%y/yonfewerriotsandChristianWietoskatheextrabusinessday.March’sinflationinColombiashouldriseto3.74%y/ydrivenStrategistbynon-tradeableinflationwhileinPeru,weexpectaninflationprintof1.6%y/y+4
