资源描述：
《新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDate28February2020EconomicsFocus:InAsia,BNMislikelytocutratenextweekinlightofweakeninggrowthmomentum,asweexpectCovid-19impacttoaffectQ2growth.InCEEMEA,SouthAfrica'sQ4GDPprintislikelytoconfirmthattheeconomyisbackinrecession,wh
2、ichmaymaketheSARBfeelmorerelaxedtosupportthecyclethroughfurtherratecuts,particularlyafterabetterthanexpectedbudgetoutcome.WeeklyprintshaveconfirmedthatheadlineFebruaryCPIinRussiaispoisedtoslow,keepingthedooropenforfurthereasingbyCBRdespiterecentFXselloff.InTurkey,FebruaryCPIisexpectedtorise
3、duetonegativebaseeffectsandseasonality,aswellasrecoveringdemandandweakTRY.BarringanydisorderlydepreciationinTRYduetoexternalandgeopoliticalheadlines,wethinktheCBTwillcarryonwithpolicyeasing.InPoland,weexpecttheNBPtostickbyitslong-standingflat-ratespolicyatthenextmeeting,despitedifferencesin
4、theMPCintheFebruarymeeting.Israel’sthirdsnapelectionswithinoneyeararedueonMarch2nd,anditseemsthereisstillnoeasywayoutofthepoliticaldeadlock.InLatAm,BrazilianmarketswillfocusonadjustmentsingrowthexpectationsontheFocussurveyaswellasFebruary’sIC-Br(whichwilllikelystayjustabove1pp).InMexico,Ban
5、xico’ssurveyofexpectationswillbereleasedonMondayallowingustoassesswhethertherecentMXNselloffhasresultedinchangesinmonetarypolicyexpectations.Argentina’sIPshouldhaverisen2%y/yduringJanuary.InChile,weexpectinflationtohavereached0.2%m/minFebruaryonthebackofseasonalityandtheFXpass-through.InCol
6、ombia,headlineinflationshouldhaverisento3.7%y/yduringFebruaryonthebackoftradables,tariffs,andseasonality.StrategyFocus:Flowshavebeensurprisinglyresilient,buttheyhavebeenpredicatedinincreasingEM-DMgrowthdifferentials.Thisisnowchallengedandthistechnicalcushionmayreverseifthisshockprovesmorepe
7、rsistentandspreadsthroughoutEM,wherethecapacitytorespondismorelimitedthaninDM.LocalfixedincomeFX-(over)hedgedandthemoredefensivecreditsremainourfavoritepicks.However,theresiliencesofarofthemoredefensiveEMassetsmaybetestedifflight-to-qualitybuilds,theDXYt
