德银-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦-2020.3.20.pdf

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate20March2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,BoTislikelytofollowitsEMAsianpeerstocutratenextStrategistweek,whileVietnamreportsharplyweakerQ1growthduetoCovid-19disruption.+1-212-25

2、0-7355PolicymakersacrossCEEMEAarerespondingstronglytothevirusoutbreakanditsJundongZhangeconomicimpactbyannouncingstimuluspackages,liquiditytools,quantitativeMacroStrategisteasing(IsraelandPoland),alongwithemergencyratecuts.Weexpecttoseefurther+1-212-25

3、0-9363actionsinthesamedirectioninthenearfuturewithCNBcuttingbyanother50bps(oratleast25bps)andfurtherliquidityeasing(andbondbuying)byNBH.SebastianA.BrownUnscheduledmeetingsbyCBsandannouncementofadditionalfiscalstepsareStrategist+1-212-250-8191alsolikely

4、.Moody'slookssettodowngradeSouthAfricatobelowIG.InLatAm,Brazil’scalendarnextweekwillbedominatedbythefocusexpectationssurveyasHongtaoJiangwellasbyactivityandinflationdata.BanxicoisscheduledtomeetnextweekandStrategistweexpectareductionoftheovernightrateb

5、yatleast25bpandpossibly50bpifthe+1-212-250-2524exchangeratestabilizesbynextThursday.InArgentina,weexpecta-1%y/yGDPJulianaLeegrowthprintforQ4´19andaslightriseofunemploymentfrom9.7%to10%.InChiefEconomistColombia,weexpectBanreptomaintainthepolicyrateat4.2

6、5%,aswhileinflation+852-2203-8312remainswithinthetargetrangerisksaretiltingtotheupsidewiththerecentCOPKubilayOzturkselloff.InPeru,aftertheCBcutpolicyrateby100bponThursday,wewillbefocusedChiefEconomistonanyadditionalgovernmentannouncementsrelatedtoCovid

7、-19.+44-20-754-55157DavidPetitcolinStrategyFocus:EMisenteringthemoredifficultstageofthispandemicaslocalStrategistgovernmentshavetodealwithcontainmentmeasuresandtheireconomicimpact.+44-0-207547-6168Weareinasharprisk–offmodewhilecontainmentofvirusisuncle

8、ar.EMfixedChristianWietoskaincomeFX–hedged,asthemostdefensiveEMassetclass,hasalsosufferedfromStrategistheightenedcreditrisks,whichweighsonlongerends.WeexpectEMCBstotake+44-20-754-52424front-loadedcutsandthusfavorbullsteepenersparticular