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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsDate3April2020EMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliEconomicsFocus:InAsia,whiletheBoKislikelytotakeapausenextweek,weStrategistexpectmoremonetaryeasinginthemonthstocome,alongwithathirdroundof+1-212-250-7355extrabudgetexpansionaseconomicre
2、coverywilllikelybelimiteduntilQ3.InJundongZhangCEEMEA,thefocusnextweekwillbeoncentralbankmeetingsinPolandandIsrael,MacroStrategistandweexpecttheMPCtocutpolicyratesatbothmeetingsinordertosupportthe+1-212-250-9363economies(50bpsinPolandand15bpsinIsrael),asCOVID-19casescontinuetoris
3、e.WatchforMarchCPIinRussia,Egypt,andHungary.WhileinHungaryandSebastianA.BrownEgypt,weexpecttheheadlineinflationtoeaseonlowerglobaloilpricesandStrategist+1-212-250-8191subdueddemand,inflationinRussiawillincreaseasRUBdepreciationsinceFebruarybeginstofeedintoprices.InLatAmweexpectBr
4、azil’sinflationdatatoHongtaoJiangshowanotherdeclineascommoditypriceshavefallenandfinancialconditionsStrategisttightened.InMexico,inflationdatashouldshowaheadlineprintofaround3.6%+1-212-250-2524whileIPdatawillshowthateconomycontinuedtoweakenevenbeforetheCovid-JulianaLee19pandemich
5、itMexico.ActivityshouldhavealsoweakenedinArgentinawereweChiefEconomistexpecta2%y/ydeclineofIP.InChile,inflationdataforMarchislikelytobedriven+852-2203-8312byrecentFXdepreciation.InPeru,marketswillfocusontheinteractionoftheKubilayOzturkexecutiveandlegislativebranchesinthecontextof
6、thepensionfundbill.ChiefEconomist+44-20-754-55157StrategyFocus:GlobalmarketshavecalledatruceaspolicyresponsesgainedDavidPetitcolintraction.EMpolicyresponseshavealsobuildoverthepastweek,revealingboththeStrategistscopeforsupportandtherelativesizesofmonetaryandfiscalammunition.As+44
7、-0-207547-6168expected,givenshallowercreditmarketsandfiscalbuffers,EM'sresponseisChristianWietoskasmaller-especiallyonthefiscalfront-with(over)relianceonmonetaryexpansion.StrategistThelatterwilllikelycontinuetoweighoncurrencies,especiallywhereBoPanddebt+44-20-754-52424metricsarem
8、ostunfavorable-andthustherisksofmonetiza
