德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-新兴市场月报：暴风雨中增长的回复力

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCross-DisciplineDateCEEMEA20February2018ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEAMonthly(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comIncreasedResilienceinStormyKubilayOzturkChiefEconomistWeather(+90)2123170124kubilay.ozturk@db.comInEEMEA,alleyesareonSouthAfrica,whereanewa

2、dministrationwithCyrilRamaphosaatthehelmcomestopower.ShouldpositivepoliticalDaneleeMasiamomentumbesustained,weseecontinuedZARresilienceandSARBcutsEconomisttothetuneof25-50bpsin2018.Wenowexpectinflationtoaverage4.5%(+27)11775-7267danelee.masia@db.comthisyear,reaching4.2%YoYatyearend.WeexpectMoody’

3、stogiveSouthAfricatimetoworkthroughthepoliticalhandover.ChristianWietoskaInRussia,withtheriskofsanctionsapparentlylowerinthenearfuture,weStrategistarealsolookingforanupgradetoinvestmentgrade.Growthhasslowedin(+44)20754-52424recentmonths,butwebelievearecoveryislikelyoncepresidentialchristian.wiet

4、oska@db.comelectionsinMarchareoutofthewayandasthe20%wageincreasesforselectedgovernmentemployeesfeedthroughtododomesticdemand.GautamKalani,Ph.D.Withinflationsurprisingtothedownside,weexpecttheCBRtoremainStrategistdovishwithratesreaching6.25%byend-2018.(+44)20754-57066gautam.kalani@db.comInTurkey,

5、economicactivityissettolosesteam.Yetitwillremainstrongthroughout2018duetofiscalsupportandbuoyantexternaldemand.TheHimanshuPorwalCBTisdonewithtightening.ResearchAnalystInCEE3,growthcontinuedtoberobustin2017Q4,andinlinewithour(+44)20754-74234expectations.Inallcountriesweexpecthouseholdconsumptiont

6、oslowhimanshu.porwal@db.comsomewhat,butcontinuetobethemaindriverofgrowth.ExternaldemandCarlosGalindowillalsoremainsupportive.InflationisonageneraldownwardtrajectoryinQ1intheregion,butisexpectedtobouncebackinQ2andQ3in2018.ResearchAnalyst(+44)20754-76269Inflationdynamicsarethusunsupportiveofanytigh

7、teningbyanyCEE3carlos.galindo@db.comcentralbankuntilmid-year.WeexpectonehikeintherestoftheyearbytheCNBandNBPin2018,andNBHtoretainitsultra-dovishbiasRebeccaKlausenEMEAFX:WecontinuetobebroadlyconstructiveonEMEAFX,ontheS