德银-新兴市场-宏观策略-图说俄罗斯：cbr不可能担忧增长放缓

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateRussia21November2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainpictures:TheCBRunlikelyto(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comworryaboutslowergrowthTwishaRoyQ3realGDPgrowthdisappointedat1.8%YoY,dec

2、lining0.7ppsfromResearchAssociatepreviousquarter.Onthesupplyside,theslowdowninQ3wasledbythetwisha.roy@db.comtransportationsectorandindustry.Theindustryslowdownhadbeenpronouncedaveraging1.1%YoY,2.8ppslowerthantheaverageinQ2.Strongretailtradeandimprovingagric

3、ulturaloutputappeartohavesupportedgrowth.Onthedemandside,strongwagegrowth,improvingconsumerconfidence,lowersavingsbyhouseholdsinducedbydecliningrealrates,improvinghouseholdcreditanddeclininginflationallarelikelytohavecontributedtothestrongmomentuminhousehol

4、ddemandinQ3.Earlierpeakincorporateprofitsissupportiveforinvestments,albeitatalowerpacethaninQ2whichwasalsoaidedbyrestocking.InOctoberdata,monthlyearnings,retailsalesandIPdisappointed.Realwagesgrowthdeclinedby0.1ppsinOctoberto4.3%YoYfromtheupwardrevisedSept

5、embernumber.Moreover,thefallinrealwagegrowthmeantthatthecontractioninrealdisposableincomedeepened(-1.3%YoY)thismonth.BothretailsalesandIPgrowthratessurprisedonthedownsideinOctober,falling0.1ppsand0.9ppsrespectivelyto3.0%YoYand0.0%YoY.Divergencebetweenwagean

6、dTheworryingdivergencebetweenrealwagesanddisposableincome.Therecoveryinrealwagesgrowthsince2016hasnottranslatedintodisposableincomegrowth20improvingrealdisposableincomegrowthinRussiaandthegapbetween%YoY,3mmathetwoiswidening.Thelatterkeptdeterioratingin2016

7、,mainlyon15accountcutsingovernmentsocialsecuritypaymentsandhighertaxesonRealwagesRealdisposableincome10certainitems.Infact,realdisposableincomeseemstobefollowingtherealpensionpaymentsgrowthtrajectorysince2016.Theon-timespikein5disposableincomeinJa-17wasmain

8、lyonaccountofajumpinpension0payments,andhassincethensubsided.-5Forward-lookingindicatorsofdemandshowcracks.Themonthlyindicatorofconsumerconfidencealongwithalmostallsub-componentsdeclinedin-10October.T