正文描述:《德银-俄罗斯-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯:增长回暖》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateRussia23February2018ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainPictures(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comGrowthtopickupTwishaRoyResearchAssociatetwisha.roy@db.com2017annualGDPsurprisedonthedownsideat1.5%,bu
2、tfirstpositivefull-yearreadinginthreeyears.PrivateconsumptionaswellasGCFposted2017GDPgrowthhighestinfourfirstpositivereadingsinthreeyearsrespectivelyandwerethelargestcontributorstogrowth.IfweassumethatQ1-Q3realGDPdataremainyears,howeverimpliesasharpunrevise
3、d,theannualreadingwouldimplyasharpslowdowningrowthinslowdowninQ420HouseholdconsumptionGovernmentQ4toabout0.8%YoY(from1.8%YoYinQ3).WethinkthemonthlydataContributiontoNPISHGFCFrealGDPChangeininventoriesNetexportspointtoamoremoderateslowdowninQ4andbelievethere
4、stofthe15growth,ppErrors&OmissionsRealGDP,%YoYdownsidesurpriseontheannualGDPcouldcomefromrevisionsinthe10historicaldata.Forecasts5High-frequencyindicatorssuggestthatmomentumislikelytorecoverin0Q1-18.Agriculture,ConstructionandIndustryhavepostedimprovements
5、versustheirQ4average,whereasTransportationhasalsorecoveredfrom-5itsDecemberfall.Retailtradesectorhasremainedstrongonthebackof-10strongwagegrowth,improvingdisposableincomegrowthandrenewed-1520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019strengthinco
6、nsumerconfidenceindicators.RealwagegrowthprintedatSource:HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBank6.2%YoY,aboveconsensus.Improvementsinpensionspaymentshasmeantthatrealdisposableincomegrowthhasalsosurprisedmarketsontheupsideandpostedthefirstnon-negativereadinginayear.High
7、erMonthlyindicatorsofeconomyalsoincomealongwithimprovementsincreditgrowthhastherebytranslatedtoahigherthanexpected(thoughslightlylowerthanpreviousmonth)implysharpslowdowninQ4readingonretailsalesat2.8%YoY.YoY%8OfficialGDPWeeklyindicatorofinflationpointstost
8、ableinflationinFebruary.HeadlineMonthlyGDP6inflationdeclinedtoanotherhistoriclowof2.2%YoYinJanuary,ontheOutputinfivebasicsectorsbackofreneweddeclineinfoodpriceinflationandrublestrengthfeeding4throughto
显示全部收起
温馨提示:
1. 部分包含数学公式或PPT动画的文件,查看预览时可能会显示错乱或异常,文件下载后无此问题,请放心下载。
2. 本文档由用户上传,版权归属用户,天天文库负责整理代发布。如果您对本文档版权有争议请及时联系客服。
3. 下载前请仔细阅读文档内容,确认文档内容符合您的需求后进行下载,若出现内容与标题不符可向本站投诉处理。
4. 下载文档时可能由于网络波动等原因无法下载或下载错误,付费完成后未能成功下载的用户请联系客服处理。