德银-俄罗斯-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：增长回暖

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateRussia23February2018ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainPictures(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comGrowthtopickupTwishaRoyResearchAssociatetwisha.roy@db.com2017annualGDPsurprisedonthedownsideat1.5%,bu

2、tfirstpositivefull-yearreadinginthreeyears.PrivateconsumptionaswellasGCFposted2017GDPgrowthhighestinfourfirstpositivereadingsinthreeyearsrespectivelyandwerethelargestcontributorstogrowth.IfweassumethatQ1-Q3realGDPdataremainyears,howeverimpliesasharpunrevise

3、d,theannualreadingwouldimplyasharpslowdowningrowthinslowdowninQ420HouseholdconsumptionGovernmentQ4toabout0.8%YoY(from1.8%YoYinQ3).WethinkthemonthlydataContributiontoNPISHGFCFrealGDPChangeininventoriesNetexportspointtoamoremoderateslowdowninQ4andbelievethere

4、stofthe15growth,ppErrors&OmissionsRealGDP,%YoYdownsidesurpriseontheannualGDPcouldcomefromrevisionsinthe10historicaldata.Forecasts5High-frequencyindicatorssuggestthatmomentumislikelytorecoverin0Q1-18.Agriculture,ConstructionandIndustryhavepostedimprovements

5、versustheirQ4average,whereasTransportationhasalsorecoveredfrom-5itsDecemberfall.Retailtradesectorhasremainedstrongonthebackof-10strongwagegrowth,improvingdisposableincomegrowthandrenewed-1520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019strengthinco

6、nsumerconfidenceindicators.RealwagegrowthprintedatSource:HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBank6.2%YoY,aboveconsensus.Improvementsinpensionspaymentshasmeantthatrealdisposableincomegrowthhasalsosurprisedmarketsontheupsideandpostedthefirstnon-negativereadinginayear.High

7、erMonthlyindicatorsofeconomyalsoincomealongwithimprovementsincreditgrowthhastherebytranslatedtoahigherthanexpected(thoughslightlylowerthanpreviousmonth)implysharpslowdowninQ4readingonretailsalesat2.8%YoY.YoY%8OfficialGDPWeeklyindicatorofinflationpointstost

8、ableinflationinFebruary.HeadlineMonthlyGDP6inflationdeclinedtoanotherhistoriclowof2.2%YoYinJanuary,ontheOutputinfivebasicsectorsbackofreneweddeclineinfoodpriceinflationandrublestrengthfeeding4throughto