德银-俄罗斯-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：复苏并不平衡，但2018年增长预期改善

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateRussia21December2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainpictures:Unevenrecoverybut(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comgrowthexpectedtoimprovein2018Q3realGDPgrowthdisappointedat1.8%YoY,declining0.7ppsfrompreviousquarter.

2、Onthesupplyside,theslowdowninQ3wasledbythetransportationsectorandindustry.Theindustryslowdownhadbeenpronouncedaveraging1.1%YoY,2.8ppslowerthantheaverageinQ2.Strongretailtradeandimprovingagriculturaloutputappeartohavesupportedgrowth.Onthedemandside,strongwagegrowth,improvingconsumerconfid

3、ence,lowersavingsbyhouseholdsinducedbydecliningrealrates,improvinghouseholdcreditanddeclininginflationallarelikelytohavecontributedtothestrongmomentuminhouseholddemandinQ3.Earlierpeakincorporateprofitsissupportiveforinvestments,albeitatalowerpacethaninQ2whichwasalsoaidedbyrestocking.InN

4、ovember,retailsalesandIPdisappointed.BothretailsalesandIPgrowthratessurprisedonthedownsideinNovember,falling0.4ppsand3.6ppsrespectivelyto2.7%YoYand-3.6%YoY.Realwagesgrowthremainedconstantat5.4%YoY.Asaresult,realdisposableincomedeclinedby0.3%,apositivesurprise,ascomparedto-1.7%fallinOctob

5、er.Theworryingdivergencebetweenrealwagesanddisposableincome.TheDivergencebetweenwageandrecoveryinrealwagesgrowthsince2016hasnottranslatedintoimprovingrealdisposableincomegrowthinRussiaandthegapbetweendisposableincomegrowth20thetwoiswidening.Thelatterkeptdeterioratingin2016,mainlyon%YoY,

6、3mmaaccountcutsingovernmentsocialsecuritypaymentsandhighertaxeson15RealwagesRealdisposableincomecertainitems.Infact,realdisposableincomeseemstobefollowingthe10realpensionpaymentsgrowthtrajectorysince2016.Theon-timespikein5disposableincomeinJan-17wasmainlyonaccountofajumpinpension0payment

7、s,andhassincethensubsided.-5Relativeimprovementinforward-lookingindicatorsofdemand.Themonthlyindicatorofconsumerconfidencealongwithalmostallsub--10componentsimprovedorremainedconstantinNovember.Thesteepest-15Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17hikewasinthe“personal