德银-俄罗斯-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：松一口气

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateRussia30January2018ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainPictures(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comAsighofreliefTwishaRoyResearchAssociatetwisha.roy@db.comTheUSTreasuryreleasedmuch-awaitedlistofR

2、ussianindividualslinkedtoPutin,marketsheavesighofreliefassanctionsnotextended.ThefulllistisavailablepubliclyandincludesanumberofseniorpoliticalfiguresclosetoPutinandfewoligarchswithanetworthofUSD1bnormore.However,theUSadministrationhasalreadysaidthatt

3、heseindividualswillnotfaceadditionalsanctions,asbeingonthelistshoulditselfserveasadeterrent,sparkingamajorreliefrallyinRussianassets.TheRUBstrengthenedtoaround55.9overnight.Thereportonimpactofextendingsanctionstosovereigndebtandfinancialderivativesise

4、xpectedon2Feb.Weexpecttherubletocontinuetostrengthenthisyearonstronggrowthandstillhighrealrates.Correlationoftherublewithoilpriceshasalreadydeclinedsignificantlyin2017.Onlythelimitedimpactofoilisexpectedthisyearaswell,especiallywiththeimplementationo

5、ftheMinFin’snewbudgetrule.DespitethelargefallinexternaldebtHigh-frequencyindicatorssuggestfurtherslowdowninQ4.AsperdataupoutstandinginnominaltermsposttoDecember,4outof5mainsectorsoftheeconomyhavepostedslowdowninQ4,whencomparedtoQ3.Industrialproductio

6、nhaspostedsanctions,concurrentdeclineinthelargestslowdownwithgrowthdecliningfrom+1.2%YoYonaveragenominalGDP,meansas%GDPinQ3,to-1.7%YoYinQ4.Growthintheretailtrade,ontheotherhand,externaldebthasgoneup.haspostedanimprovement,ashouseholddemandisfuelledbyr

7、ising45%GDPwageandincomegrowth,highergrowthincredittohouseholdsandMonetaryauthoritiesGeneralGovernment40FinancialsectorNon-financialsectorstrongerconsumerconfidence.Retailsalesgrowthhasimprovedfrom352.1%YoYonaverageinQ3to3.0%YoYinQ4.Ontheotherhand,dec

8、line30inthehouseholdsavingsratehasstalledasafasterfallininflationhas25causedrealratestoincrease.WenowexpectrealGDPgrowthtoslow20furtherinQ4andtherebytakefull-yeargrowthto1.7%.Growthislikelyto15improveafterthePresidentialelectionsinMarchandreac