德银-俄罗斯-宏观经济-图说俄罗斯：国内需求支撑2018年一季度通胀

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateRussia23October2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistRussiainpictures:Domesticdemand(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comtosupportinflationin1Q2018CarlosGalindoInSeptemberdata,monthlyearningsandIPdisappointed.Septemberr

2、ealResearchAnalystwagesdataat2.6%YoYsurprisedonthedownsideevenasAugustdata(+44)207547-6269wasreviseddownwardsbyalarge1.3pps.Realdisposableincomealsocarlos.galindo@db.comsurprisedonthedownsideasitdeclinedby0.3%YoYinSeptember.However,retailsalesremainedstrongwithagrowthof3.1%YoY(pre

3、v.TwishaRoy1.9%).Strongwagegrowth,improvingconsumerconfidence,lowerResearchAssociatesavingsbyhouseholdsinducedbydecliningrealrates,improvingtwisha.roy@db.comhouseholdcreditanddeclininginflationallarelikelytocontributetothestrongmomentuminhouseholddemandinQ3.Wehavebeenhighlightingt

4、hat,eventhoughcorporateprofitshaveprobablyreachedapeak,pastRealGDPgrowthoutlooksurgehasmeantthatinvestmentgrowthwilllikelyimproveinQ3aswell.20ContributiontoHouseholdconsumptionGovernmentNPISHGFCFrealGDPChangeininventoriesNetexportsInotheractivitydata,thetransportationsectordatafor

5、Septemberwas15growth,ppErrors&OmissionsRealGDP,%YoYveryweak.However,strongretailtradeandimprovingagriculturaloutput10alongareexpectedtosupportgrowth.SeptemberindustrialproductionForecasts5dataalsodisappointed,fallingto0.9%YoYfrom1.5%YoYpreviously.0Industryslowdownhasbeenpronounced

6、thisquarterwiththeQ3averageat1.1%YoY,2.8ppslowerthantheaverageinQ2.-5-10CPIdeceleratesfurther,inlinewithourforecast.Amonthlydeclineinconsumerpricesalongwithahigherbase,tooktheheadlineinflation-152006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018downtoanall-timelowof3.0%YoY.Weex

7、pectthedisinflationarytrendSource:HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBanktocontinueonthebackoffallingfoodinflationandbaseeffectswithannualinflationnowlikelytoreach2.8%YoYbyyear-end.However,stillAhealthybankingsector:Banks’un-anchoredinflationexpectationsandafaster-than-expectedpass-throughfro

8、mdomesticdemandexpansionposeupsid