欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:8227238
大小:654.77 KB
页数:6页
时间:2018-03-11
《德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员:弱势美元支撑增长和通胀-》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FedWatcher:WeakerdollarMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistprovidesatailwindtogrowthand(+1)2122506161
2、matthew.luzzetti@db.cominflationBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294
3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679
4、justin-s.weidner@db.comLauraDesplansEconomist(+
5、1)2122507583
6、laura.desplans@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary29,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:29/01/201814:30:00GMTDistributedon:29/01/201813:03:00GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatth
7、ewLuzzetti
8、(+1)2122506161
9、matthew.luzzetti@db.comJanuary29,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:WeakerdollarprovidesatailwindtogrowthandinflationSummary:LimitedFedspeakduringblackoutperiod.BroaddollarhasfallentoweakestlevelinPastdollarweaknesswillliftcorePCEKeydevelopment
10、wasfurtherdollarweakness,whichseveralyearsinflationbyseveraltenthsthisyearshouldmodestlyboostgrowth,inflationovernextyear.UStrade-weightedbroaddollarppImpacton%yoycorePCEinflationDBView:Unchanged:4hikesin’18;3in’19Indexindex(ls)Index0.2frompastdollarmovementsDollarind
11、exspotvalue(DXY)(rs)Fedspeak130105Who**TakeawaysImpact*125100GoodfriendFedismoreorlessonrightpath1200.1[3]Employmentpartofmandate95largelysatisfied11590Aslongasinflationislow,would110supportmonetarystimulus0.0Fedcredibilityhasbeencritically10585importanttolowinfl
12、ation10080Referencepolicyrulewouldhelp20142015201620172018transparencySource:FRB,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankResearchSource:DeutscheBankResearchFedresearchTitle/TakeawaysImpact*WeakerdollarshouldalsoboostnetexportsEventstowatchthisweekDB:WhattoexpectfromtheJanuary
13、FOMCContributionofnetexportstoWhenWhoSetting/topicstatementrealGDP%chg(ls)Jan-31FOMCRatedecisionUnlikelyanysignificantnewsignalforthemarketNominalbroadtrade-KaplanSpeaksattheTeacher“Thetransmissionofexchangeratechangesto4qMAweighteddollar(inverted%y/yRetirementSys
14、temofTexasoutputandinflation”10%USDdepreciation:(1)liftsexportsby~7%,0.5axis,rs)-15Feb-02AnnualConferencelowersimportsby~3.
此文档下载收益归作者所有