德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：弱势美元支撑增长和通胀-

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1、FedWatcher:WeakerdollarMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistprovidesatailwindtogrowthand(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.cominflationBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comLauraDesplansEconomist(+

5、1)2122507583

6、laura.desplans@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary29,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:29/01/201814:30:00GMTDistributedon:29/01/201813:03:00GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatth

7、ewLuzzetti

8、(+1)2122506161

9、matthew.luzzetti@db.comJanuary29,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:WeakerdollarprovidesatailwindtogrowthandinflationSummary:LimitedFedspeakduringblackoutperiod.BroaddollarhasfallentoweakestlevelinPastdollarweaknesswillliftcorePCEKeydevelopment

10、wasfurtherdollarweakness,whichseveralyearsinflationbyseveraltenthsthisyearshouldmodestlyboostgrowth,inflationovernextyear.UStrade-weightedbroaddollarppImpacton%yoycorePCEinflationDBView:Unchanged:4hikesin’18;3in’19Indexindex(ls)Index0.2frompastdollarmovementsDollarind

11、exspotvalue(DXY)(rs)Fedspeak130105Who**TakeawaysImpact*125100GoodfriendFedismoreorlessonrightpath1200.1[3]Employmentpartofmandate95largelysatisfied11590Aslongasinflationislow,would110supportmonetarystimulus0.0Fedcredibilityhasbeencritically10585importanttolowinfl

12、ation10080Referencepolicyrulewouldhelp20142015201620172018transparencySource:FRB,BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankResearchSource:DeutscheBankResearchFedresearchTitle/TakeawaysImpact*WeakerdollarshouldalsoboostnetexportsEventstowatchthisweekDB:WhattoexpectfromtheJanuary

13、FOMCContributionofnetexportstoWhenWhoSetting/topicstatementrealGDP%chg(ls)Jan-31FOMCRatedecisionUnlikelyanysignificantnewsignalforthemarketNominalbroadtrade-KaplanSpeaksattheTeacher“Thetransmissionofexchangeratechangesto4qMAweighteddollar(inverted%y/yRetirementSys

14、temofTexasoutputandinflation”10%USDdepreciation:(1)liftsexportsby~7%,0.5axis,rs)-15Feb-02AnnualConferencelowersimportsby~3.