德银-新兴市场-宏观经济-新兴市场宏观经济与策略聚集-20170922-em macro and strategy focus-deutsche bank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange22September2017UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelli(+1)212250-7355JedEvans(+1)212250-8605SebastianBrownEconomicsFocus:InAsia,weexpectCBSLtohikewhi

2、leBoTstaysonhold;Strategist–LatAmVietnam’sgrowthislikelytoaccelerateamidmixedinflationandtradedata.In(+1)212250-8191EMEA,boththeCNBandCBEarelikelytokeepratesonhold,weexpectPolishCPIinflationtoaccelerateto1.9%YoYinSeptember.InBrazil,watchforGautamKalanisign

3、sconfirminglowinflation,lowCADandpossibleuptickincollection.Strategist–EMEAFocusisonColombia,whereBanRepwilldebatebetweenpausingoreasing+44(20)754-57066(weexpect4.0%terminalrate).StrategyFocus:WecontinuetofavorhigherrealratesthataresupportedbyJulianaLeedom

4、esticfundamentals(BoPandinflation)and-incredit-curvetradesandSeniorEconomisthighercarry/betasovereignswithanoverallneutralstance.+852(2203)8312FX:USDweakness-notcarry-hasbeenthemaindeterminantofEMFXperformance.BoP,realrates,andeconomicupturnssupportBRLand

5、RUBGuilhermeMaronelongs.WeexpectCBTtocontinuetoanchorTRYlongs,butwefinditmoreStrategist-LatAmsensitivetopossibleboutsofUSDstrength.RecentPLNandHUF(+1)212250-8640underperformancebodeforlongsvsEUR),inourview.Thepost-earthquakeMXNselloffshouldretracegivenitsl

6、imitedeconomicimpact.ElinaRibakovaTheCLPremainssignificantlyovervalued-keepitasfunding.ChiefEconomist(+44)207547-1340Rates:Wefavorreceiverswherepositioningislighterandmonetarydynamics/pricing/carrymostfavorable.Keephigh-convictionRussialongsviaOFZandbulls

7、teepeninginXCCY,Israel(forward-starting)andPolandChristianWietoska(2Y2YIRS).WearemostcomfortablerecommendingreceivingintheStrategist–EMEAJan19

8、Jan20sectorinBrazil,patientlysoin3Y3YTIIE(tacticallypaying(+44)20754-5242410Yasahedge)andinColombia(1Y2YIBRandCol

9、tes20)onfurthereasing.Credit:Giventhepaceofinflows,weexpectinvestorstostaycautiousuntilcoreratessettle.High-yielderswithimprovingmacroconditionssuchasArgentinaandUkraineshouldcontinuetooutperform.Werecommend