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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateAsia21September2017CEEMEALatinAmericaHarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalyst(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comEMChartbook-RegionalstrategyandEduardoVieiraPicks&PansResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-7568Weturnedneutralo
2、nEMcorporatecreditinourlastchartpackonJune21,aeduardo.vieira@db.combittooearlyonhindsight.Ourviewwasdrivenmainlybyvaluation.Tobeclear,wewerenotnegativeandthoughtspreadswouldberangebound,makingHimanshuPorwalcreditlargelyacarryplay.However,sincethen,sprea
3、dsare~20bptighter,ResearchAnalystwithhigherbetacomponentssuchasHY(vs.IG)andLatamoutperforming-(+44)20754-74234Figure1.ThiswasmainlyonaccountofpositiveEMgrowth,alowrateshimanshu.porwal@db.comenvironment,weakerdollar,stabilisingChinamacro,highercommoditie
4、s,etc.MarketsshruggedoffpoliticalnoisesinmanypartsofEMandheavysupplywasquitewellabsorbed.With3monthstogofortheyear,wedon'thavemuchincentivetoturnconstructiveagain,insteadoptingtostayintheFigure1:PerformanceofEMIndicesneutral/carrycamp.Again,wearenotnega
5、tiveandnotcallingforamaterialwideninginspreads.AsfundamentalsstaysupportiveandtechnicalbackdropsinceJuneisstrong,spreadscouldremaintight.AkeydriverforEMwillobviouslybeMarkitIndexAssetswapspreadsChangerates.Lowerforlongerisnowaconsensusview(andweareinthi
6、scamp),21-Jun-1718-Sep-17hencetheriskisperhapstothedownside.EMex-sov256234(22)EMex-sovIG188173(15)EMex-sovHY409366(43)AsiastrategyAsiaex-sov176174(2)Latamex-sov350300(50)Asiacreditspreadsarealmostunchangedinthe2Hsofar,inlinewithourview.EEMEAex-sov248233
7、(15)ThemainthemesherehavebeentheNorthKoreatensions,RMB'sstellarEMSov268243(25)appreciation,busynewissuecalendar(especiallyinfinancials),lowdefaultrateEMCorp267240(28)(onlyonesofar,despitealltheheadlinesinChinaHY),solid2QearningsEMFin223217(6)season(Indi
8、abeingtheweakestspot),talksaboutpotentialsovereignbondSource:Markit.Dataasof18-Sep-17fromChina,etc.WesummarisebelowourstrategyforvarioussegmentsoftheAsiacreditmarket.PleaseseethelastMonthlyreportfromSep12,titled"Nameofthegameisst
