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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDate21September2017ElinaRibakovaChiefEconomistEMEASnap(+44)207547-1340elina.ribakova@db.comEMinflationCarlosGalindoResearchAnalyst(+44)207547-6269carlos.galindo@db.comEMlikelytoremaininasweetspotOneofourcorethesesforQ4isthatEMwillremaininasweetspo
2、tbetweenrobustgrowthandcontrolledinflation.InAsia,lowinflationisprovidingsomecentralbankswithroomtocutratesfurther,whileothersarelikelydelayratehikesuntil2018.WeexpectSouthAfrica,Brazil,Chile,ColombiaandRussiatocutratesasaresultofinflationdynamics,asnotedinourEMmonthlypiece.CommonfeaturesInsidethi
3、spiece,wealsoprovideananalysisofcommonfeaturesofEMinflation.Weextractasingle,latentandsmoothindexofglobalinflation,frominflationdatain87EMcountriesandcommodityprices.Underthisframework,contemporaneoussurprisestoEMinflationarerelatedtocommodityprices,andthosetooilpricesurprises.TrendandsurprisesThe
4、EMlatentfactorcurrentlypointstoacontinuedandlargelyterseascentofinflationinthenextmonths,whilethefilteredversionshowsroomfor(asmall)upsidesurprisefromcommoditypricesinSeptember,givendailyspotoilpricesandfuturesdata.Zerointheverticalaxisofthefigurebelowrepresentstheunconditionalmeanofthecommonfacto
5、r,hencesuggestingwearestillbelowhistoricalnormsinEMinflationdevelopments,inlinewithcomplementaryassessmentspresentedattheendofthisdocument.Latentfactorpointstoapossible(small)upsidesurpriseinEMinflationinSeptemberandaverytemperateascentinthecomingmonths.0-5-10-15-20-2520142015201520152015201620162
6、01620162017201720172017-12-03-06-09-12-03-06-09-12-03-06-09-12FORECAST/NOWCASTEMglobalfactorFilteredSource:DeutscheBank,HaverAnalytics,HWWI,WB,FT,ES/H,BLS,JPM/IHSM,JPM/IHSM,JPM/IHSM,CNB/CBS,ONS,AZSTAT,CIO,BBS,NSC,SIB,INEB,BHAS,CSO,IBGE,NSI,NICS,INE,CNBS/H,DANE,INEC,INS,CBS,CSO,CBDR,BCE,CAPMAS,BCR,
7、ESO,NSO,BDG/INE,BCH,HKCSD,CSO,MOSPI,BPS,CBI,CBS,BOJ,DoS,ARKS,KNBS,NSO,KAS,STAT,BoLP/LSB,CSB,CAS,SoL,DSEC,SSO/H,DSM,STATM,INEGI,BoM,MONSTAT,HCP,INE,NPC,BCN,NBS,NCSI,FBS,PCBS,DEC,BCP,INEI,PSA,CSO/H,MDPS,INSSE/H,RSS
