钢铁行业2019年中期策略：从辉煌回归常态

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1、内容目录从辉煌回归常态.-5-为何牛：需求强势不改........................................................................................-6-地产空中加油式调整....................................................................................-6-再论地产低库存.................................................................................

2、..........-7-房屋销售大概率继续偏离均值.....................................................................-8-地产再库存猜想...........................................................................................-9-制造业投资疲软.........................................................................................-10-基

3、建弱复苏................................................................................................-11-钢产量明显提升.........................................................................................-12-牛回头：供给明显增加......................................................................................

4、-13-重估环保放松释放的产能..........................................................................-13-钢铁供应增量合计.....................................................................................-14-高炉增产推动铁矿需求增长.......................................................................-15-紧俏的石头..................

5、..............................................................................-16-牛的节奏：利润弹性先矿后钢...........................................................................-17-今年矿强于钢.............................................................................................-17-冶炼利润中枢回归合理.............

6、.................................................................-17-投资策略：关注估值修复钢铁股时点................................................................-18-风险提示............................................................................................................-19-图表目录图表1：地产投资支撑钢铁需求.-5-图表2：钢价与吨毛

7、利.........................................................................................-6-图表3：地产销售面积与新开工增速（%）........................................................-6-图表4：70个大中城市新建住宅房价同比（%）.......