美国薄荷醇卷烟禁令：潜在的财政影 响估计

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1、ABGlobalResearch16November2018GlobalTobaccoGlobalUSmentholcigaretteban–estimatingthepotentialfinancialimpactFDAannouncesitwillbepressingaheadwithmentholbanOnThursday,theFDAannounceditwillbepressingaheadwithamentholcigaretteban,aspartofawiderpackageofmeasureswhichismostlytar

2、getedatreducingyouthe-cigarettesuse.Theannouncementwasinlinewithearlierpressreports.ThenextstepiswritingtheruleandsubmittingittotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(aWhiteHousebranch).Oncesubmitted,theOMBhas60daystorespond(itmayapplyfora30dayextension–source).Inourrecentnote"USme

3、ntholcigaretteban–willithappenandwhatwoulditmean?"wediscussedthelikelihoodofimplementationandtheavailableevidenceonmentholsmokerbehaviour.Inthisnotewelayoutamodeltoestimatethefinancialimpact(pleaseemailusforafullinteractiveversion).EstimatingthefinancialimpactInourview,ther

4、earethreekeyareasofuncertaintythatwetakeintoaccountinourmodel.1)Whatdomentholconsumersdoinresponsetoaban?Dotheyquit,switchtoillicitcigarettes,nextgenerationproductalternatives,ornon-mentholcigarettes?2)Howsuccessfularecompaniesatretainingsmokers?I.e.if50%oftotalmentholsmoke

5、rsswitchtonon-mentholcigarettes,doeseachcompanydoabetterorworsejobthan50%?Andfinally,3)amongmentholsmokersswitchingtonextgenerationproducts(NGPs),whatarethecompaniesNGPmarketshares?VolumedeclinesimpliedbymarketmovesseemexcessiveSince9-Nov(whenthepressreportsfirstsurfaced),B

6、AThasunperformedpeers(Figure1)–performancerankingisunsurprisinggiventhehigherrelianceonmentholvolumesintheUSandleverage.However,basedonourmodel,itdoesimplya90%reductioninmentholvolumes.Meanwhile,theMOandIMBsharemovesimplyc60%andc40%reductionsrespectively(settingasideanyoffs

7、etfromnon-heatedtobacconextgenproducts).Webelievethisisexcessive.Wewouldfurthernotethatthisassumesthemarketassumesa100%chanceofimplementation(wewouldnotmakethatassumption).TobaccoEquitiesNikOliverAnalystnik.oliver@ubs.com+44-20-75684982RobertRamptonAnalystrobert.rampton@ub

8、s.com+44-20-75682014RobertKrankowskiAssociateAnalystrobert.krankowski@ubs.com+44-2