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1、ABGlobalResearch10October2018ConsumerandSpecialtyFinanceCECLImplicationsforSpecialtyFinance:LargeCapitalImpairments,FutureEarningsVolatilityWeexpanduponourinitialanalysisofCECL'simpactsonspecialtyfinanceLastweek,inconjunctionwithourcolleaguesSaulMartinezandBrockVander
2、vliet,wepublishedourconclusionsaroundtheimplementationoftheCurrentExpectedCreditLossModel(CECL)forreserveaccountingforbanksandspecialtylenders.ThekeyelementofCECListhatitrequireslife-of-loanreservingforloans,ratherthanthecurrentstandard,whichrequiresreservingforloanso
3、veranexpectedlosshorizon;inspecialtyfinance,thishorizonistypically12-15months.Thischangewillhavethemostsignificantimpactonassetclassesthathavelongdurationsand/orhighlosscontent;inthespecialtyfinancespace,assetdurationsaretypicallyshort,butlosscontentishigh.Weseethree(
4、mostlynegative)impactstospecialtyfinancefromCECLFirst,CECLwillrequireasignificantone-timetrue-upofreserveswhenit'simplementedinlate2019.Inmanyrespects,thisactionistantamounttore-classificationofretainedearningsfromcapitaltoreserves;nonetheless,itwillresultinasignifica
5、ntimpairmentinreportedtangibleandregulatorycapital.Forspecialtyfinancecompanies,weestimateamedianincreaseinreservesof~61%(vs.21-31%forbanks),andamediandeclineintangibleequityof13%(vs.~1.4%forbanks).Second,onaprospectivebasis,itwillresultmuchgreaterprovisionvolatility,
6、andthereforeearningsvolatility.WebelievethistrendmaycompressP/Emultiplesforthegroup.We'vereexaminedtheimpacttoSCadjustingforTDRs;it'sstillbadbutlesssoOnecriticismofourprioranalysisonSCwasthatitdidnotadjustforTDRs,whichalreadyhavelife-of-loanreserving.Wehavemadethisadj
7、ustment,andnowforecastCECLwillresultin~14%compressionintangibleequity(vs.-24%previously)and4.5%reductionin2020EEPS(vs.-11%previously).Notwithstandingthesechanges,westillviewSCasoneofthecompaniesmostnegativelyimpactedbyCECL.Bestandworstpositioned,andimplicationsforours
8、tockpreferencesBestpositioned:CIT(Neutral).Worsepositioned:ADS(Neutral),Ally(Buy),Discover(Neutral),OneMain(Buy),SantanderCo
