新冠病毒对美国旅游经济的影 响.pptx

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1、TheImpactofCOVID-19ontheUnitedStatesTravelEconomyApril15,20202020AnalysisKeyFindings

2、OxfordEconomicsTravelIndustryLossesAdeclineof45%fortheentireyearisexpected.Thisincludesan81%dropinrevenueoverthenexttwomonthsandcontinuedlossesovertherestoftheyearreaching$519billion.GDPLossesTravelin

3、dustrylosseswillresultinacumulativeGDPimpactof$651billionin2020.WeprojecttheUSeconomytoenteraprotractedrecessionbasedontheexpecteddownturnintravelalone.Therecessionislikelytolastatleasttwoquarterswiththelowestpointinthesecondquarterof2020.TaxLossesAdeclineof$80billionintaxeswillbereal

4、izedasaresultoftraveldeclinesin2020.EmploymentLossesTheUSeconomyisprojectedtolose8.0millionjobsbytheendofAprilasaresultoftraveldeclinesin2020.Theunemploymentrateof4.4%inMarchwillrisesubstantiallyinthecomingmonths.Travel-relatedemploymentlossesalonewillpushtheunemploymentrateupto8.4%by

5、theendofApril.“FLATTENINGTHECURVE”OFTHETRAVELDOWNTURNAscenariomodelwasruntoassessthepotentialgainsofamoretempereddownturnbeginninginJune.ThemitigateddownturnscenarioassumesavarietyofeffortstolessentheseverityofdeclinesintravelbeginninginJune.Theseincludeopeningoftravelbusinessesonareg

6、ion-by-regionbasis,enhancedtravelersafetymeasures,andarobustarrayofmarketingcampaignstoencouragetravelamonglowriskUSresidents.Thesemitigatingeffortsholdthepotentialto“flattenthecurve”oflosses,resultinginacumulativedeclineof$401billioninsteadof$519billionandanetgainof$117billion.Bymiti

7、gatingtravellossesinthesecondhalfof2020,theUSeconomycouldgaincloseto$150billioninGDPand1.3millionjobsbytheendoftheyear(relativetothebaselinescenario).OverviewOxfordEconomics,incoordinationwithitsTourismEconomicssubsidiarycompany,modeledtheexpecteddownturnsintheUStravelindustryin2020as

8、aresultofCoronavirus.WethenmodeledtheeconomicimpactsofthesetravelindustrylossesintermsofGDP,unemployment,andtaxes.Travelindustrylosseswillfarexceedthatofanyothersector.Thisis9timestheimpactof9/11A$519billiondeclineintravelspendingintheUSthisyearwilltranslateintoatotaleconomiclossof$1.

9、2tril