分析新冠疫情影 响下的全球经济形势.pptx

《分析新冠疫情影 响下的全球经济形势.pptx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、©OECD

2、KeymessagesPolicymakershavereactedandmanagedtobuffertheinitialshockwellActivityreboundedasconfinementmeasuresstartedtoease,butmomentumappearstobeplateauingandconfidenceremainsweakPolicystillmatters:toboostconfidencepolicymakersshouldcontinuetoimprovehealthcare,maintainfiscalandmonetar

3、ysupportandassistpeopleandfirmswithongoingchangesRecoveryplansareaonceinalifetimeopportunitytoencouragesustainable,inclusiveandgreengrowth2Anespeciallyuncertainoutlook1051101009590852019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q4GlobalGDPprojectionsConstantprices,index2019Q4=100November2019projectionsSeptem

4、ber2020projectionsUpsidescenarioDownsidescenarioNote:Theupsidescenarioillustratesasituationwhereconsumerandbusinessconfidenceimprovesmorequickly.Thisimprovementcouldbeduetoonlymildcontainmentmeasuresbeingrequiredtocontrolnewvirusoutbreaksorsignsthataneffectivetreatmentorvaccinecouldbewidely

5、deployedmorerapidlythanassumed.ThedownsidescenarioillustratesasituationwhereconfidencecouldremainweakforanextendedperiodanduncertaintycoulddeependuetoanintensificationofCovid-19outbreaksormorestringent©OECD

6、confinementmeasuresbeingrequiredtocontrolitsspread.Thesescenariosarebasedonsimulatio

7、nswiththeNiGEMglobalmacroeconomicmodel.ThedifferencebetweentheNovember2019projectionsandSeptember2020projectionsforthelevelofGDPin2021Q4isexpressedin2015pricelevelsandweightedonaPPPbasis.Source:OECDEconomicOutlookdatabase;OECDcalculations.LossofUSD7trn3©OECD

8、OECDInterimEconomicOutlookprojec

9、tions201920202021201920202021World2.6-4.55.0G202.9-4.15.7Australia1.8-4.12.5Argentina-2.1-11.23.2Canada1.7-5.84.0Brazil1.1-6.53.6Euroarea1.3-7.95.1China6.11.88.0Germany0.6-5.44.6India*4.2-10.210.7France1.5-9.55.8Indonesia5.0-3.35.3Italy0.3-10.55.4Mexico-0.3-10.23.0Japan0.7-5.81.5Russia1.4-7

10、.35.0Korea2.0-1.03.1SaudiArabia0.4-6.83.2UnitedKingdom1.5-10.17.6SouthAfrica0.1-11.51.4UnitedStates2.2-3.84.0Turkey0.9-2.93.9RealGDPgrowth%,year-on-yearNote:*FiscalyearsstartinginApril.Source:OECDEconomicOutlookdatabase.4©OECD

11、Therecoveryinconsumptionisu