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1、WhyhasCOVID-19hitdifferentEuropeanUnioneconomiessodifferently?AndréSapirExecutivesummaryALLEUROPEANUNIONcountriesareundergoingsevereoutputlossesasaconsequenceoftheCOVID-19crisis,butsomehavebeenhurtmorethanothers.Inresponsetothecrisis,EUleadershaveagreedonaRecoveryandResilien
2、ceFund(RFF),whichwillhelpallEUcountries,butthosehithardestwillbenefitmost.THISPOLICYCONTRIBUTIONexploreswhysomecountrieshavebeenhiteconomicallymorethanothersbyCOVID-19.Usingstatisticaltechniquesdescribedinthetechnicalappendices,severalpotentialexplanationswereexamined:thesev
3、erityoflockdownmeasures,thestructureofnationaleconomies,thefiscalcapacityofgovernmentstocounterthecollapseineconomicactivity,andthequalityofgovernanceindifferentcountries.WEfoUNDTHATthestrictnessoflockdownmeasures,theshareoftourismintheeconomyandthequalityofgovernanceallplay
4、asignificantroleinexplainingdifferencesineconomiclossesindifferentEUcountries.However,publicindebtednesshasnotplayedarole,suggestingthatthattheEuropeanCentralBank’spandemicemergencypurchaseprogrammehasbeeneffective.preliminaryWEUSEDoURresultstoexplorewhysomesouthernEUcountri
5、eshavedraft.beenmoreaffectedbytheCOVID-19crisisthansomenortherncountries.Dependingonthepairsofcountriesorcountrygroupingsthn30and50percentdowntolockdownstrictness,between35andat45percenttothequalityofgovernanceandbetween15and25wpercentdowntotourism.ecoTHIScoULDHAvEimplicatio
6、nsfortheallocationoftheRRFbetweenmrecoveryandresilienceexpenditures.SupportingtherecoverythroughpacombinationofdemandandsupplyinitiativesisimportanttoensurearthatcountriesreboundasquicklyaspossiblefromtheCOVID-19crisis,ewithoutleavingtoomuchpermanentdamagetotheireconomies.Bu
7、td,inmanycountries,especiallysomeofthesoutherncountrieshitwhardestbytheCOVID-19crisis,resilienceisamajorstickingpoint.Tooeoften,insomeofthesecountries,thepoorqualityofgovernancehasfohadanegativeimpactontheirresilience,astherelativelylargesizeofutheirGDPshockshasdemonstrated.
8、ItiscrucialthereforethatRRFnprogrammesdevotesufficientattention(andresource