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1、HongKongOfficeAccessingthepotentialimpactofCOVID-19;upgradingofficelandlordstoNeutralWelowerCentralofficerentforecasts20-25%toreflecttheCOVID-19outbreakWeupgradeSwire,HysanandHKLfromSelltoNeutralaswethinktheyhavestrongenoughfinancialstomaintainsteadydividends.InQ12
2、0,CentralGrade-Aofficerentfell9%QoQ,andvacanciesrosefurther,to4.2%,asofFebruary,thesharpestdeteriorationsincethe2008globalfinancialcrisis(GFC).Combinedwithlowerbusinessconfidenceandhigherfundredemptionpressures,welowerour2020Centralofficerentforecastfroma10-15%decl
3、inetoa20-25%declineandexpectvacanciestosurpass8%,a4pptrise,byend-2020,inlinewiththeperiodduringtheSARSoutbreakandbasedonourassumptionthattheCOVID-19outbreakinHongKongwilllikelybecontainedbythesummer.Thesectoristradingatdiscountsof50%onNAVand4.4%on2020Eyieldspread,-
4、3.0SD/+4.0SDcomparedwithits10-yeartradingaverage,closetotheGFCtrough.Wethusbelievetheweakearningsoutlookispricedin.Strongcapabilitytomaintaindividend;lookingbeyondtheCOVID-19outbreakWebelieveofficelandlords(Swire,HysanandHKL)havestrongenoughfinancialstomaintainabso
5、luteDPS,mainlyowingtotheir:1)sustainablylowgearingatabout11%,lowerthantheperiodsduringSARS,the1998Asianfinancialcrisis(AFC)andGFC;2)strongcashpositions,atover1.8xcashtoshort-termdebtratios;3)lownetgearingsensitivitytodeclinesinrevenueandinvestmentproperties’(IP)val
6、ues;and4)soliddividendrecords.LookingbeyondtheCOVID-19outbreak,weexpectmoreflexibleworkingarrangementsmaycastashadowoverlong-termofficedemand.However,weexpectnoimpacttomaterialisesoongiventhatcorporatesusuallytake3-4yearstoadoptsuchchangesandwethinkthereislimitedne
7、wofficesupplybefore2022E.StresstestanddownsidescenarioanalysisIfbusinessactivitiesdonotnormaliseduring2020,weexpectCentralofficerenttodecline40%-50%YoYin2020andvacanciestorise10pptcomparedwithduringtheAFC.Ourcoreearningsanalysisindicatesaroughly17%downsidetoourbase
8、casein2020Eandnetgearingtomoderatelyincreaseabout9ppt,to20%.ApplyingatroughvaluationfromtheAFCandassuminglandlordsannounce2020EDPScuts,weestimate
