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1、EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesITHardwareCautiousonEnterprisedemandasCOVIDaddstoanalreadysoftbackdrop;hybridcloudakeyopportunitylonger-termITHardware
3、CompanyUpdateHeadingintoApr-Qresults:Amidunprecedenteduncertaintysurroundingthenear-termandlingeringimpactsofCOVID-19,welowerourestimates/TPsa
4、ndprovideourlatestviewsonourEnterprise-focusednamesintoApril-Qresults.We’recautiousonon-premiseserver/storagedemand,withanynear-termbumponrushedWFH/BCPspendlikelybehindusaspressureonITbudgetssetsin.WhileJulylikelymarksthetroughvs.seasonality(CSe~9ptsbelowforProduct),weexpectsoftdemandtrendstolin
5、gerandthinkStreetestimatesembedanoverlyoptimisticsnapbackinC2H.Forthosewillingtolookbeyondnear-termsoftness,wethinktherecentaccelerationinpubliccloudadoptionisatrendthat’sheretostayand,whilenegativeforon-premspending,createslonger-termopportunityforHardwarevendorsthatembracetheshifttowardhybrid;
6、wethinkIBMandNetAppstandtobenefitmostwithinourspace,whileHPEisoverlydependentonon-prem.AframeworkforCY20/CY21:Withnoeasyhistoricalguideforthecurrentbackdrop,weprovideaframeworktounderstandkeypushpoints,sensitivities,etc.,ratherthanfocusonjustabsoluteforecasts.OurProductestimatesfactorin(1)revenu
7、eisthesharpestsub-seasonalinJuly(~9ptsbelowtrailing3-yr),stabilizesattypicalseasonalityinOct/Jan,thensnapsbackin1HCY21;and(2)TTMProductrevenuereturnstomodestlybelowCY19levels(duetofastercloudadoption)within9-10qtrs(byCY22),in-linewiththeavg.forpriordownturns.WhileournewestsforC2Handbeyondstandme
8、aningfullybelowcurrentconsensus,afull-blown“2008/2009recession”scenario(4qtrssharplysub-seasonaland13qtrsbacktopeak)wouldpresentsignificantdownsideevenvs.CSe.Forhigh-marginServices,wefocusonattachtotheinstalledbase(usingtrailing5-yrProductasaproxy),andexpectamoremutedimpactwithapotentialboostasc
9、ustomers“sweat”assets.Fixedvs.variablecostsakeyswingfactor;underlyingmarginsunderpressureascomponentcostsrise.We’rekeenlyfocusedonnegativeoperatingleverageacrossourcoverageandbreakoutfixedvs.variablecostsas:(1)ProductCOGSare
