澳大利亚房地产行业更新：COVID-19的影 响分析.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch15April2020EquitiesAustralianRealEstateSectorUpdateRealEstateAustraliaRoundingoutCOVID-19forRetailA-REITsGovernment"codeofconduct"frameworkforlandlord/tenantnegotiationsThegovernmenthasformedamandatoryCodeofConducttogovernretailerlandlordnegotiations.Thecodei

2、sbasedontheprinciplethatthereshouldbe"proportionality"betweenthereductioninsmallertenants'turnoverandtherentreliefprovidedbylandlords.Atleast50%ofanyreliefshouldcomeintheformofabatementswiththebalancecomingfromdeferrals/extensionsofleases.Whilethecodeistenantfriendlythereispo

3、tentialforlandlordtaxrelief(state,local)andcovenantrelieffrombanks.ReflectingabatementsandlongertermrebasingacrossremainingretailnamesConsistentwithourapproachfortheretailportfoliosforSCG,VCX,MGRandSGPweupdateSCP,CQRandAVNearningstoreflectshorttermabatements(50%waiverofrentfo

4、rsixmonthsforimpactedtenants).TheoverallimpactvariesbyREIT,subjecttoretailerexposure.Longertermwerebasespecialtyrents5-20%lowerdependingontheretailermixandrental/occupancycosts.OurFY21FFOforecastsarereduced-2%to-13%andlongertermforecastsaredownanaverageof-1%to-5%.Balancesheet

5、s&distributionsBalancesheets&liquidityaregenerallysoundtodaybutincreasingLVR'sremaininfocus.WeexpectJunehalfdistributionstogenerallybewithheldtopreservecapitalandlongertermpayoutratiosreducedtoensurethatLVRsdonotmateriallyincrease,withassetvaluessettoreduceinthemediumterm(e.g

6、.GPTWholesaleRetailFundsawassetvalues-11%fortheMarchquarter,Marchqtrdistributionwithheldtopreserveliquidity).Since2017,theA-MITregimegivesA-REITsmoreflexibilitytoreducepayoutratioswithoutadversetaxconsequencesforunitholders(comparedto2008/09whereA-REITsraised~$14bntodeleverag

7、eandcontinuedtodistribute~$5bn).Preferenceswithintheretailsub-sector(upgradeCQRtoBuy)Weremaincautiousontheretailsub-sector.Weacknowledgethatvaluationrisksaretotheupside,whilenewsflowandshorttermearnings/valuationmomentumistothedownside.Inourview,investorsshouldneutraliseunder

8、weightpositions,thoughitistooearlytomoveoverweight.Weexpectshortterm