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1、ABGlobalResearch2April2020AustralianHealthInsuranceUpdateHowcouldCOVID-19alterPHIclaimsandprofitpatterns?NetbenefitstoPHIsareunlikelytobematerialoverthemedium-termWhileaCOVID-19drivendrop-offinPHIclaimscostsappearsincreasinglylikely,potentialearningsimplicationsarelessclear.Alongsideuncertaintyove
2、rthedegreeofnear-termutilisationreductionsandsubsequentclaimscatch-up,theimpactofliabilityadequacytest(LAT)failsonprofitrecognitionalsoneedtobeconsidered.Takingthesefactorsintoaccount,COVID-19scenarioswhereutilisationdrops65%for3-6mthsfollowedbyan18mthpartialcatch-upcouldseenetmarginsspikeinFY20Ebu
3、tfallinFY21E/FY22E.Furthermore,postponing1-Aprpremiumrises,providinghardshipreliefandothercoverageinitiativescouldreducenetbenefitsto0.5%-2.5%ofmarketcapforlistedPHIs.Withonlymoderatenetbenefitsvalueupsideappearsconstrained,supportingourNeutralstancewithMPLnowpreferredoverNHF(loweredtoNeutral).Clai
4、mssavingscouldboostFY20Ebut'LAT'failscouldimpactintoFY21EWithnon-essentialsurgeryonholdasprivatehospitalsstandatthereadytosupporttheGovernment'sCOVID-19response,UBS'Healthcareteamestimatehospitaloutlayscouldfall65%(seehere)withancillaryclaimslikelytofallasimilaramountinourview.Wethereforeconsidersc
5、enarioswherePHIclaimsfallby65%for3-6mthsfromMar-20followedbyan18mth'catch-up'where90%ofdeferredhospitaland40%ofancillaryclaimsreturn.Givenclaimscostscouldoutweighpremiumsastheoutbreaksubsides,wealsoconsiderP&LimpactsofLATfails.ForFY20E,thesescenarioscouldseenetmarginsspike~12%thoughseemargins~7%and
6、~2%lowerinFY21E/FY22Efora3mthslowdownand3-4%lowerinFY21E/FY22Efora6mthslowdownscenario.HowsignificantarethenetbenefitstoPHIs?Givennotalldeferredclaimswillreturnduetodeaths,recoveries,economicpressuresandotherfactors,netclaimssavingscouldamountto$210mforMPLand$65mforNHFforevery3mthsoflowerutilisatio
7、n.However,otherfactorswilltempernetbenefits,including:(1)6mthpostponementtopremiumrises($110mMPL,$30mNHF),(2)fullcoverageforCOVID-19casesirrespectiveofcoveragelevel,(3)premiumreliefforfinancialhardship,and(
