Covid-19医疗科技更新：前景仍不明朗.docx

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1、U.S.MedicalSupplies&DevicesCOVID-19MedTechUpdate:OutlookStillFluid,ButareStocksAlreadyAdequatelyPricingItIn?1March2020EquityResearchAmericasResearchAnalystsMattMiksic212-325-4381matt.miksic@credit-suisse.comVikChopra212-325-1749vik.chopra@credit-suisse.comDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHIS

2、REPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobject

3、ivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ExecutiveSummaryRecentMedTechPerformanceReflectsMixofRegionalandEnd-MarketRisks:MedTechunderperformedtheS&P500by~100-200bpsoverthepasttwoweeks,withourDisruptiveIndexdoing~200bpsbetterthan

4、theS&P,andstockswithexposuretodeferrableend-marketsandEMgeographieshithardest(>300bpsvs.S&P).While2020outlookandregionalsupplychainrisksremainuncertain,wecontinuetoviewourtoppicksEW,SYKandGMED,andtheirexposuretodisruptiveendmarketsasbeingbestpositionedwithinouruniverse.Wesummarizethegeogra

5、phicexposureforthenamesinouruniverse,whichonaveragehas~5%exposuretoChina,~17%toAPAC,~20%toEMand~46%toOUSintotal.OutlookforMostMedTechCompaniesRemainsFluid:Onlyaround1/3ofMedTechcompanieshavequantifiedthepotentialimpactofCOVID-19,andthosethathavestoppedshortofquantifyingthepotentialimpactb

6、eyondQ1,outsideofChinaorontheirglobalsupplychains.CompaniesthathavemadeinitialestimatesregardingtheimpactofCOVID-19on2020operatingperformanceinincludeALC,BDX,BSX,MDTandTFX.Asglobalhealthorganizationsgrapplewiththepotentialextentofthehumanimpactofthevirus,investorsarebeginningtodiscountthep

7、otentialforawiderandlongerfinancialimpactfromthevirusonstocksaswell(e.g.extendingtoQ2orQ3.)ChinaWastheInitialFocus,ButConcernsShiftingtoOtherOUSRegions,SupplyChainsandPotentiallytheUS:AscasesspreadtoJapan,Korea,ItalyandtheMiddleEast,itseemsincreasinglylikelyt