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1、ABGlobalResearch13March2020GlobalRealEstateStrategyWhat'spricedin,sectorimplications,andhowtopositionfortheCOVID-19falloutDown25%,onlyslightlyaheadofmarketGlobalListedRealEstatehasfallen25%sincetheCOVID-19situationescalatedinmid-February,faringonlyslightlybet
2、terthanthemarket(-27%)despiteitsdefensivecharacteristicsandpotentialtobenefitfromcentralbankstimulus.Whilethesituationishighlyuncertainandchangingrapidly,weexamineherehigh-levelimplicationsforthesector,what’spricedin,andhowtopositioninthisdifficultmarket.Sub-s
3、ectorimpactsThemostobviouspressureneartermisonthehotelsector,butthishasarelativelysmallweight(c.2%)inouruniverse.RetailProperty(16%global)looksatriskfromlowerfootfallandpressureonincomes,andretailersarealreadyaskingforrentreductions/concessions.Thisexacerbates
4、adifficultsituationforretailproperty,alreadyunderpressurefrome-commerce,withstretchedbalancesheets.Indirectpressurefromlowereconomicgrowthislikelytoimpactindustrialandofficeproperty.Residentialislikelythemostresilientsector,withstimulusmeasureslikelytotargetmo
5、rtgagecosts.Theseviewsarevindicatedbyrecentreturns,fromworsttobest:Hotels(-47%),retail(-28%),industrial(-26%),office(-24%),diversified(-24%)andresidential(-19%).HowtopositioninthisdifficultmarketOureconomistshaverevised…everything,respondingtothespreadofthevir
6、us.Theylayoutthreescenarios:baseline,intermediateandpandemic.Positioningforthebaseline(viruscontainment,stimulusfuelledrecovery),wegoforstructurallysupportednames,strongbalancesheets,withsomedevelopmentexposure.Inthedownsidescenarios,welookforquality,defensive
7、names,withlowfinancialleverage.Wearenottemptedintoretailingeneralineitherscenariogiventhestructuralpressures,onlyexacerbatedbythesituationandstretchedbalancesheets.Eachofourregionalteamsprovidestockpicksforthesescenarios,includedherein.What'spricedin?Theglobal
8、NAVdiscounthaswidenedto22%,1standarddeviation(SD)cheaperthanits30yearhistory,butstillsomewayofftheGFCtrough(~25%furtherdown).Weestimatesharepricesareimplyinga9%dropinrealestatevalu
