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1、FlashEconomicsTherelevanceofSargent-Wallace14December2017-1465ThefamousarticlewrittenbySargentandWallace,“SomeUnpleasantMonetaristArithmetic”(FederalReserveBankofMinneapolis,QuarterlyReview,Fall1981),isstillcompletelyrelevantandimportanttoday(wewilltaketheexampleoftheeurozone
2、):Itdescribesthebehaviourofcentralbanksfacedwithalossoffiscalsolvencyandforcedtoacceptfiscaldominance;Itshowshowmonetarypolicynowactsdifferentlytowhattheusualmonetaristmodelshows.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comCORP
3、ORATE&INVESTMENTBANKINGINVESTMENTSOLUTIONS&INSURANCESPECIALIZEDFINANCIALSERVICESDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsThebrilliantideaofThomasSargentandNeilWallaceThebrilliantideaofThomasSargentandNeilWallaceisthe
4、following:-Initially,thecentralbankconductsa“rigorous”monetarypolicyandcontrolsinflation;-Butthefiscaldeficitisexcessiveandleadstoasharpriseinthepublicdebtratio;-Whenthepublicdebtratiobecomesexcessive,insteadoffiscalpolicycorrecting,monetarypolicyintervenes:thecentralbankmone
5、tisesthepublicdebt(issuesmoneytofinancethefiscaldeficitandstopthepublicdebtratiofromrising);-Thisisaclearcaseoffiscaldominance:monetarypolicyisforcedtoabandonitstraditionalobjectivestofocusonobtainingfiscalsolvency.Thissequenceofeventshasbeencleartoseeintheeurozone:-Fiscalpol
6、icybecamehighlyexpansionaryfrom2008,especiallyintheeurozoneexcludingGermany(Chart1);Chart1Fiscaldeficit(as%ofnominalGDP)EurozoneEurozoneexcl.Germany00-1-1-2-2-3-3-4-4-5-5-6-6-7-7Sources:Datastream,Natixis-8-802030405060708091011121314151617-Monetarypolicyremainedconventionalu
7、ntilJanuary2013,combatinginflationandwithlittlemoneycreation(Charts2AandB);Chart2AChart2BEurozone:NominalGDP,euroreporateandEurozone:Monetarybaseinterestrateon10-yeargovernmentbondsNominalGDP(Y/Yas%)InEURbn(LHS)Euroreporate(as%)3,50030Eurozoneexcl.Greece:10-yeargovt.interestr
8、ate(as%)As%ofnominalGDP(RHS)883,00025662,50020442,00022151,50000101,
