德银-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场宏观与策略聚焦

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange23February2018UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelli(+1)212250-7355JedEvans(+1)212250-8605SebastianBrownEconomicsFocus:InAsia,theBoK’spressconferenceislikelytobedominatedStrategist–LatAmbygrow

2、threlatedquestions,whileHongKongandIndiaarelikelytopost(+1)212250-8191strongergrowthinQ4.InEMEA,bothNBHandBoIwilllikelykeeptheirmonetarypoliciesunchangedinrespectiveMPCmeetingsnextweek.GautamKalaniElsewhere,finalprintsofQ4GDP(2017)inCzechandPolandareunlikelytoStrategist–EMEAshowanyrevisionfromtheirp

3、reliminaryestimates.InLatAm,attentionwillbe+44(20)754-57066focusedonChile’smanufacturingactivitydataandtheBCCh’ssurveyofexpectationsofbothtradersandeconomists.JulianaLeeStrategyFocus:WhiletherisksstemmingfromrisingUSyieldsandincreasedSeniorEconomistequityvolatilityremain,EMcontinuestoberelativelyres

4、ilient,andweretainabroadlyconstructiveview.+852(2203)8312FX:WearestillbullishZARasvaluationsarenotyetstretchedandimprovedmacro–disinflation,highrealrates,andcurrentaccountGuilhermeMaroneadjustment–candriveasecondphaseofZARappreciationaspoliticalriskStrategist-LatAmclears.Weexpressthisviewvialong-da

5、tedUSDZARdigitalputs.Wealso(+1)212250-8640maintainshort-dateddigitalputsinUSDTRYexpectinga‘catchup’appreciationdrivenbycheapvaluations,lightpositioninganddisinflationElinaRibakova(risingrealrates).WhilekeepingapositiveviewonMXNweseeriskChiefEconomistpickingupintotheelection.WecontinuetoliketheBRLont

6、hebackofthe(+44)207547-1340macroenvironmentandthelackofanegativeaftermathafterthefailureofthesocialsecurityreformandrecommendbuyingBRL/COP.ChristianWietoskaRates:DisinflationwilllikelycontinueinBrazil,ColombiaandPeruwherewecontinuetofocusonthefrontend.MexicotradedbetterthisweekonStrategist–EMEAthep

7、erceivedtobedovishcommuniquebutcontinuestofeellikean(+44)20754-52424unanchoredmarket–wefavorthebellyaddinghedgesopportunistically.Overall,thelongendsfeelheavyingeneralandvaluationsarestretched.InEMEAw