瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy-20170724-credit suisse

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1、24July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comConsensusEPSrevisions–who’ssecondKinNangChikbestafterKorea?85221017482kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.co

2、mFigure1:MSCIHongKongconsensusEPSupgradecycles125MSCIHK-consensusEPSrevision+23%120115110+8.5%+4.2%10510095-6m-4m-2m0m+2m+4m+6m+8m+10m+12m+14m+16m+18mEPS2005EPS2010EPS2017ESource:IBES,MSCI.*2005EPSupgradecyclestopsat+11masitbecomesactualEPSafterthat.

3、■AnswerisMSCIHongKong.On2017EConsensusEPSrevisions,wehavebeenhighlightingthatKoreacomesinfirstwithupgradesof44%over16consecutivemonths.MSCIHongKongcomesinsecondwitha4.2%upgradeto2017EconsensusEPSoversevenconsecutivemonths.Theupgradesarebroad-basedwit

4、hallsevensectorsassociatedwithupgradesinJuly(seeFigure4).■OnlythreeEPSupgradecycles.Figure1alsohighlightsthatEPSupgradecyclesareindeedrareforMSCIHongKong(asitisforMSCIAsiaex-Japan).Sofar,therehaveonlybeenthreeupgradecycleslastingsixmonthsormoresince2

5、001–05,2010and2017E.Figure2highlightsthatMSCIHongKonghasrisenby21%duringthisEPSupgradecycle.Figure3highlightsthatcurrentP/Bof1.37xisstilllowerthanthehighsof1.65x-1.7xseenduringthe2005and2010EPSupgradecycles.■ReiterateasmallOverweightonMSCIHongKong.Wi

6、thMSCIHongKongdroppingoutofourCheapest4clubintheJunequarter,wehaveasmallOverweightinMSCIHongKong.ToppicksfromtheCSregionalportfolioareSunHungKai,CheungKongandCKHutch.WiththeUScorePCEdeflatorslowingto1.4%(seeFigure5),webelieveFedratehikesareonlygradua

7、landlimited.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresul

8、t,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.24July2017MSCIHongKonghasFigure2:MSCIHongKongperformanceduringt